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Showing posts from November, 2025

Monthly summary — November 2025

Bad run, clustered. It happens. 139 bets across the month. 97 winners, 42 losers, 70% strike rate. -1.34u close. Longest losing streak was 5 bets in a row. At short odds you feel a run like that properly. Six-month average has been ticking along at +10.63u. -1.34u this month is below that. Second red month on the record so far. Bad run frequency is running well under what I modelled for. The Away AH side took the hit — -3.55u across the month. Filter's watching it. Running bank now +392.60u after 31 months. Full record and every bet on the sheet: Steadbank Results . DR

Picks for Sun 30 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Fortaleza CEIF v Atlético Bucaramanga (Colombia Categoria Primera A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.27 — won Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Mekelle Kenema (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.41 — lost Atalanta U20 v Lazio U20 (Italy Campionato Primavera 1) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.24 — won Atalanta v Fiorentina (Italy Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.60 — lost Hermannstadt v UTA Arad (Romania Liga I) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.32 — won Police v Musanze (Rwanda National Soccer League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.55 — won Mbeya City v Namungo (Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.36 — won Day close: -0.35u (5 from 7). Running: +392.60u. DR

Picks for Sat 29 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Barnet v Harrogate Town (England EFL League Two) — Under 3.5 goals @ 1.50 — won AOX Kissamikos v Olympiakos Piraeus II (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.73 — lost Kavala v Nestos Chrisoupolis (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.83 — lost Kochi United v ThespaKusatsu Gunma (Japan J3 League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.23 — won Dundee v St. Mirren (Scotland Premiership) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.85 — won Tekstilac Odžaci v Borac Čačak (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.42 — won Trajal Krusevac v Semendrija 1924 (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.28 — lost Day close: -1.08u (4 from 7). Running: +392.95u. DR

Picks for Fri 28 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Argentino Merlo v Excursionistas (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.47 — won Argentino Merlo v Excursionistas (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.58 — won Juventude v Bahia (Brazil Serie A) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.32 — won Getafe CF v Elche CF (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.37 — won Mashujaa v Dodoma Jiji (Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.44 — won Day close: +1.90u (5 from 5). Running: +394.03u. DR

Picks for Thu 27 Nov 2025

Three picks today. Mekelle Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd Bank (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.50 @ 1.46 — won Gorilla v Kiyovu Sports (Rwanda National Soccer League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.27 — won Police Uganda v Kitara (Uganda Premier League) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.28 — won Day close: +0.83u (3 from 3). Running: +392.13u. DR

Picks for Wed 26 Nov 2025

Three picks today. Grêmio v Palmeiras (Brazil Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.33 — won Mekelakeya v Sidama Bunna (Ethiopia Premier League) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.22 — won Coastal Union v Mbeya City (Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.45 — lost Day close: -0.74u (2 from 3). Running: +391.31u. DR

Picks for Tue 25 Nov 2025

Two up today. Welayta Dicha v Welwalo Adigrat Uni (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.50 @ 2.31 — lost KMC v Mtibwa Sugar (Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.34 — won Day close: -0.68u (1 from 2). Running: +392.05u. DR

Picks for Mon 24 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Racing Club v River Plate (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.71 — won Racing Club v River Plate (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.56 — won Monza U20 v Cremonese U20 (Italy Campionato Primavera 1) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.35 — won Juárez v Pachuca (Mexico Liga Mx) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.74 — won Metaloglobus v Hermannstadt (Romania Liga I) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.38 — won Day close: +2.60u (5 from 5). Running: +392.72u. DR

Picks for Sun 23 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Hoffenheim Women v Bayern München Women (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Away AH -0.75 @ 1.63 — won PAS Giannina v Makedonikos Neapolis FC (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 2.60 — lost Ilioupoli v Marko (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.57 — won PAS Giannina v Makedonikos Neapolis FC (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.50 — won Tochigi v Gainare Tottori (Japan J3 League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.63 — won Mukura v Muhanga (Rwanda National Soccer League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.64 — won Gyeongnam v Cheonan City (South Korea K League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.93 — lost Day close: +0.29u (5 from 7). Running: +390.13u. DR

Picks for Sat 22 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Donaufeld v Mannsdorf (Austria Regionalliga Ost) — Away AH +0.50 @ 1.70 — won Novorizontino v CRB (Brazil Serie B) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.55 — lost Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers (England EFL League Two) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.34 — won Napoli U20 v Frosinone (Italy Campionato Primavera 1) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.51 — lost Napoli U20 v Frosinone (Italy Campionato Primavera 1) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.41 — lost Bugesera v Rutsiro (Rwanda National Soccer League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.42 — won Kasetsart v Nakhon Pathom (Thailand Thai League 2) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.21 — won Day close: -1.41u (4 from 7). Running: +389.84u. DR

Picks for Fri 21 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Excursionistas v Argentino Merlo (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.43 — lost Excursionistas v Argentino Merlo (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.53 — lost Wiener SC v Gloggnitz (Austria Regionalliga Ost) — Away AH +0.50 @ 1.64 — lost Al Ittihad v Al Riyadh (Saudi Arabia Professional League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.79 — won Valencia CF v Levante UD (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.41 — won Day close: -2.43u (2 from 5). Running: +391.26u. DR

Picks for Thu 20 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Grêmio v Vasco da Gama (Brazil Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.41 — lost Negele Arsi Ketema v Adama Kenema (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.50 @ 1.50 — lost Twente W v Atletico Madrid W (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 1.81 — won PSG Women v Bayern München Women (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 1.72 — won OH Leuven W v Roma W (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 1.66 — lost Day close: -1.06u (2 from 5). Running: +393.69u. DR

Picks for Wed 19 Nov 2025

Five picks today. IB Khémis El Khechna v AS Khroub (Algeria Ligue 2) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.41 — won Vila Nova v Volta Redonda (Brazil Serie B) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.48 — won Wolfsburg Women v Manchester United Women (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 2.42 — lost Juventus W v Olympique Lyonnais Women (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 1.28 — lost Katowice W v Pogoń Tczew (Poland Ekstraliga Women) — Home AH -0.75 @ 1.45 — won Day close: -0.23u (3 from 5). Running: +394.74u. DR

Picks for Tue 18 Nov 2025

One pick today. MC Saïda v JSM Tiaret (Algeria Ligue 2) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.21 — won Day close: +0.20u (1 from 1). Running: +394.97u. DR

Picks for Mon 17 Nov 2025

Five picks today. ES Mostaganem v USM Alger (Algeria Ligue 1) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.43 — won Barracas Central v Huracán (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.75 — won Barracas Central v Huracán (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.60 — won Pergolettese v Giana Erminio (Italy Serie C Group A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.28 — won Tekstilac Odžaci v Kabel Novi Sad (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.41 — won Day close: +1.99u (5 from 5). Running: +394.77u. DR

Picks for Sun 16 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Vélez Sarsfield v River Plate (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 2.07 — won Kavala v Kampaniakos Chalastra (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 2.04 — lost Panargiakos v Ilioupoli (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.69 — won Fukushima United v Nara Club (Japan J3 League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.26 — won Montrose W v Glasgow City W (Scotland SWPL 1) — Away AH -0.75 @ 1.45 — won Partick Thistle Women v Aberdeen (Scotland SWPL 1) — Away AH -0.75 @ 2.88 — lost Hamilton Academical v Motherwell W (Scotland SWPL 1) — Away AH -0.75 @ 1.81 — won Day close: +0.49u (5 from 7). Running: +392.78u. DR

Picks for Sat 15 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Villa Dálmine v Excursionistas (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.47 — won Villa Dálmine v Excursionistas (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.59 — won Deportivo Armenio v Dock Sud (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.22 — won Retz v Sportunion Mauer (Austria Regionalliga Ost) — Away AH +0.50 @ 1.33 — won Crotone v Sorrento Calcio (Italy Serie C Group C) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.71 — lost Durango v Cimarrones de Sonora (Mexico Liga Premier Serie A) — Under 3.5 goals @ 1.41 — won FAP v Dinamo Jug (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.38 — won Day close: +1.31u (6 from 7). Running: +392.29u. DR

Picks for Fri 14 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Lanús v Atlético Tucumán (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.39 — won Lanús v Atlético Tucumán (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.32 — won Llaneros v Envigado (Colombia Categoria Primera A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.51 — won Deportivo Cali v Once Caldas (Colombia Categoria Primera A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.31 — won Stepojevac Vaga v Borac Čačak (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.30 — won Day close: +1.60u (5 from 5). Running: +390.99u. DR

Picks for Wed 12 Nov 2025

Three picks today. La Equidad v Deportivo Pereira (Colombia Categoria Primera A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.42 — lost Bayern München Women v Arsenal Women (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 2.09 — lost SL Benfica W v Twente W (Europe UEFA Womens Champions League) — Away AH -0.25 @ 2.50 — lost Day close: -2.50u (0 from 3). Running: +389.39u. DR

Picks for Tue 11 Nov 2025

One pick today. Czarni Sosnowiec W v Lech Poznań UAM (Poland Ekstraliga Women) — Home AH -0.75 @ 1.48 — won Day close: +0.46u (1 from 1). Running: +391.89u. DR

Picks for Sun 9 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Fredericia v Viborg (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.57 — won Fredericia v Viborg (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.50 @ 1.46 — won Vejle v København (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.24 — lost Atalanta v Sassuolo (Italy Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.70 — won Minija v Be1 NFA (Lithuania 1 Lyga) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.56 — won Gimpo Citizen v Bucheon 1995 (South Korea K League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.74 — won Athletic Club Bilbao v Real Oviedo (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.72 — won Day close: +2.22u (6 from 7). Running: +391.43u. DR

Picks for Sat 8 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Bristol Rovers v Gillingham (England EFL League Two) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.22 — won Harrogate Town v Oldham Athletic (England EFL League Two) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.39 — won Cañoneros Marina v Deportiva Venados (Mexico Liga Premier Serie A) — Under 3.5 goals @ 1.42 — lost Armagh City v Ards (Northern Ireland Nifl Championship) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.77 — won Rekord Bielsko-Biała W v Lech Poznań UAM (Poland Ekstraliga Women) — Home AH -0.75 @ 2.36 — lost Trat v Khon Kaen United (Thailand Thai League 2) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.29 — won Gabès v AS Slimane (Tunisia Ligue 1) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.42 — won Day close: -0.31u (5 from 7). Running: +389.21u. DR

Picks for Fri 7 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Pisa v Cremonese (Italy Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.35 — won Estudiantes Tecos v Los Cabos United (Mexico Liga Premier Serie A) — Under 3.5 goals @ 1.53 — lost Jeddah v Al Arabi (Saudi Arabia First Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.76 — won Elche CF v Real Sociedad (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.24 — won Nakhon Si Thammarat v Phrae United (Thailand Thai League 2) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.38 — won Day close: +0.12u (4 from 5). Running: +389.52u. DR

Picks for Thu 6 Nov 2025

One pick today. Ceará v Fortaleza (Brazil Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.34 — won Day close: +0.33u (1 from 1). Running: +389.40u. DR

Picks for Wed 5 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Sport Recife v Juventude (Brazil Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.47 — won Bragantino v Corinthians (Brazil Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.24 — won SGS Essen v Werder Bremen Women (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Away AH -0.75 @ 2.00 — won Matsumoto Yamaga v Tegevajaro Miyazaki (Japan J3 League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.24 — won Olympic Safi v Difaâ El Jadida (Morocco Botola Pro) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.48 — won Day close: +1.72u (5 from 5). Running: +389.07u. DR

Picks for Tue 4 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Comunicaciones v UAI Urquiza (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.29 — lost Wadi Degla v Haras El Hodood (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.23 — won Union Berlin Women v Wolfsburg Women (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Away AH -0.75 @ 1.71 — won Al-Jndal v Al Bukayriyah (Saudi Arabia First Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.85 — lost Kairouan v Gabès (Tunisia Ligue 1) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.30 — won Day close: -1.07u (3 from 5). Running: +387.36u. DR

Picks for Mon 3 Nov 2025

Five picks today. Defensa y Justicia v Huracán (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.60 — lost Defensa y Justicia v Huracán (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.48 — lost Platense v Sarmiento (Argentina Primera Division) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.33 — won Hadiya Hosaena v Ethiopian Medhin (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.46 — won Real Oviedo v CA Osasuna (Spain La Liga) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.29 — won Day close: -1.13u (3 from 5). Running: +388.43u. DR

Picks for Sun 2 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Fénix v Excursionistas (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.87 — lost Kampaniakos Chalastra v Asteras Tripolis II (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.50 — won PAS Giannina v Kavala (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 2.67 — won PAS Giannina v Kavala (Greece Super League 2) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.52 — won UTA Arad v Metaloglobus (Romania Liga I) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.54 — lost Montrose W v Motherwell W (Scotland SWPL 1) — Away AH -0.75 @ 2.45 — lost Montrose W v Motherwell W (Scotland SWPL 1) — Away AH -0.50 @ 2.13 — lost Day close: -2.24u (3 from 7). Running: +389.56u. DR

Picks for Sat 1 Nov 2025

7 picks today. Flandria v Acassuso (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.45 — lost Flandria v Acassuso (Argentina Prim B Metro) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.55 — lost Ismaily SC v Kahraba Ismailia (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.75 @ 1.46 — won Ismaily SC v Kahraba Ismailia (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.62 — won Nõmme Kalju FC U21 v JK Tallinna Kalev U21 (Estonia Esiliiga) — Home AH -0.50 @ 1.87 — won Gimpo Citizen v Hwaseong (South Korea K League 2) — Away AH +0.25 @ 2.15 — lost Ben Guerdane v Kairouan (Tunisia Ligue 1) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.60 — lost Day close: -2.15u (3 from 7). Running: +391.79u. DR