Steadbank

6 picks today. The best price on the card was one we nearly did not have at all. KV are in the Icelandic third tier, which the odds screens do not carry, so on the face of it there was no market. There was, at eight different counters, and none of them quoted the +0.25 line we wanted except one. Splitting it instead — half on the draw-no-bet at 2.15, half on the double chance at 1.70 — came out at 1.92 against the 1.86 available as a single bet. KV won 6-3, so both halves paid in full. The lesson is a dull one but it keeps earning: a line missing from the screen is not a line missing from the market. Fylkir was the other one that existed in only one place. Not a single bookmaker priced them at -1.00 — the board ran to -0.5 and then jumped straight past us to -1.5, because they were 1.17 to win the match outright. The exchange had it at 1.36 with about a tenner behind the price. They won 3-1, which on that line is the narrowest possible full win. Another goal for Völsungur and the...

6 picks today. The best price on the card was one we nearly did not have at all. KV are in the Icelandic third tier, which the odds screens do not carry, so on the face of it there was no market. There was, at eight different counters, and none of them quoted the +0.25 line we wanted except one. Splitting it instead — half on the draw-no-bet at 2.15, half on the double chance at 1.70 — came out at 1.92 against the 1.86 available as a single bet. KV won 6-3, so both halves paid in full. The lesson is a dull one but it keeps earning: a line missing from the screen is not a line missing from the market. Fylkir was the other one that existed in only one place. Not a single bookmaker priced them at -1.00 — the board ran to -0.5 and then jumped straight past us to -1.5, because they were 1.17 to win the match outright. The exchange had it at 1.36 with about a tenner behind the price. They won 3-1, which on that line is the narrowest possible full win. Another goal for Völsungur and the...

13 picks today. Two goals in the closing minutes decided how this one reads. Internacional de Palmira were 2-1 down in Boyacá, which on a +1.25 line is a half win, because the +1.0 leg pushes and the +1.5 leg pays. A third Patriotas goal at the death turned that into a full loss, a swing of better than a unit on one kick. Not long after, Flamengo had a goal disallowed against São Paulo and drew 1-1. At 2-1 the -1.00 line pushes. At 2-0 it wins. Neither was a poor read and both finished a single goal away from something entirely different. The -1.00 line did the rest of the damage. Yelimay drew 1-1, Flamengo drew 1-1, and a draw on that line carries no protection whatsoever, so the full stake goes every time. Add Seoul losing outright and that one line accounts for three of the six losses. Jerv supplied another two on its own. We held both the -1.50 and the -0.50 on the same fixture, they went down 2-1 at home to Lysekloster, and a single wrong read cost two units instead of one. ...

9 picks today. Santos will not enjoy reading their own numbers. Twenty one shots to five. Sixty four percent of the ball. Expected goals of 1.74 to 0.86. Twelve corners to one. Fifty seven touches in the Chapecoense box against five at the other end, and ninety one entries into the final third against thirty nine. Neymar scored twice and finished with a 9.5 rating off nine shots. Santos still did not win. They led at the interval, conceded to Marcinho straight after it, put through their own net on the hour, and needed a Neymar penalty in the 89th minute simply to draw level with the team sitting bottom of the table. Matheus saved five, two of them big. On a -1.00 line none of that pays, and the full stake goes. Haka and Charlotte did the quiet opposite, winning by exactly the two goals their line asked for. Haka was the only pick on the card priced above our own model, 1.69 against a derived 1.688, so the best value we held was also the one that delivered. Both quarter lines cam...

9 picks today. The pick of the night wore the wrong name. The Michigan Bucks who put four past Peoria have not been the Michigan Bucks since 2019, when the club left Pontiac for Flint and became the Flint City Bucks. Founded in 1995, four times champions of USL League Two, the most decorated amateur outfit in the country, and still filed by FootyStats under the old badge. That is how a Michigan side turned up between an Icelandic rout and a pair of Argentine handicaps. Víkingur supplied the rout, five past Keflavík. Halifax went down 3-2 in Canada and the Gold Coast youngsters shipped four before dawn, the two that got away. Both Argentine dogs lost by a single goal, which on a quarter line is not a defeat but a half, so the red ink runs thinner than the two losses suggest. Västerås SK 2-0 Örgryte (Sweden Allsvenskan) — Home AH -1.0 Västerås @ 1.98 — won St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk (Ireland Premier Division) — Home DNB St Patrick's @ 1.23 — void (draw) Gimnasia Mend...

5 picks today. Belgrano opened the Clausura with a home win over Rosario Central, and ÍH ran riot to a 5-2. Only Navbahor let us down, held to a draw where it needed a two goal win. Navbahor Namangan 1-1 Qizilqum (Uzbekistan Super League) — Home AH -1.0 Navbahor @ 1.58 — lost Orense 2-1 Aucas (Ecuador Primera Serie A) — Away AH +1.25 Aucas @ 1.20 — half won ÍH 5-2 Hafnir (Iceland 4. deild) — Home AH +0.5 ÍH @ 1.38 — won Belgrano 2-1 Rosario Central (Argentina Liga Profesional) — Home DNB Belgrano @ 1.84 — won Athletic Club 2-1 São Bernardo (Brazil Serie B) — Away AH +1.25 São Bernardo @ 1.28 — half won Day close: +0.46u (4 paid of 5). Running: +YYY.YYu. DR

5 picks today. Every pick at least half landed, a clean sweep across the five. Westchester were the standout, seeing off the New York Cosmos 3-0. Plus both USL League One favourites came good on the night. Fluminense SC v Atlético Tubarão (Brazil Catarinense 2) — Home AH +0.25 Fluminense @ 2.03 — won Jaro II v GBK Kokkola (Finland Kakkonen) — Away AH +0.50 GBK @ 1.62 — won Portland Hearts of Pine v Union Omaha (USA USL League One) — Home AH +0.25 Portland @ 2.09 — half won Náutico v Londrina (Brazil Serie B) — Away AH +1.25 Londrina @ 1.44 — half won Westchester SC v NY Cosmos (USA USL League One) — Home AH +0.50 Westchester @ 1.30 — won Day close: +2.56u (5 paid of 5). Running: +YYY.YYu. DR

A quick note from the desk to share something we’ve been building. We are always looking for ways to hand you a better number, and this one goes right to the heart of the Asian Handicap so we wanted to walk you through it. We’ve taken a close, deliberate look at the vig  and the margin every bookmaker quietly folds into a price. It is the difference between what a price says and what the game is truly worth, and on the Asian Handicap it is where a surprising amount of value hides in plain sight. So we built a way to track the vig live on the exchanges . The exchange is where the sharpest money in the world meets, and it sets about the fairest price there is  margin stripped almost to the bone. By reading that true exchange margin and mapping it across to the handicap, we can derive an Asian Handicap price that reflects genuine fair value, rather than the padded figure a bookmaker would prefer you take. What that means for you is simple. On every pick you now get a ...

A quiet green Friday. Five of the nine landed outright, but at prices this short a card like this only pays a little when two of them miss, plus 0.29u on the day, and it was Bahia that made it green. Bahia were the bet we leaned on hardest, the one true outlier on the board with a pair of books alone at 1.98 on the minus one line while the rest of the market sat around 1.61. They paid it back in full, seeing off Chapecoense two goals to nil to clear the handicap with a goal to spare. Close to a full unit from a single bet, and without it Friday reads red. The two that stung were the kind you take on the chin. Charlotte Independence’s second string could not find a way past Appalachian and went down nil-two, a Draw No Bet that only ever needed a point it never threatened to take. Changchun Yatai were the sore one with one-five at home to Wuxi Wugou, a quarter-line favourite taken apart, and there is no soft landing on a night like that. The rest of the margins fell our way. Lion...

A second hard day to end the weekend, and we want to be straight with you about it. Both the result, and what we have found underneath it. First the card, and it is worth being clear about how the losses came, because this was not a day of beatings. Germinal went a goal down after 22 minutes and pushed for an equaliser all night that never came. Guaireña chased a single goal from the first half deep into stoppage time. Lakeland lost to the only goal of the game. Three of our bets beaten by one goal each, the sort of tight calls that go our way on another night. The heavier defeats were real enough, Almagro by three and Perth by two, but the shape of the day was our teams making chances and not taking them. The good news held up too. Ballard won 4-0, Subiaco and Juventus won 1-0, Racing’s draw was enough for their bet, and Fortaleza’s narrow loss still gave us half a win. Four wins and a half against six losses. Here is where we will not give you half the story. Some of this wee...

A rough Saturday, and there is no point pretending otherwise. Ten bets went out and the favourites just kept coming up short. On a thin summer card, that is how a losing day gets built. Four of them came in. NWS Spirit’s youngsters won 5-1, Wanderers beat Progreso 2-0, Almirante Brown’s 1-1 draw was enough for their bet, and Estudiantes Caseros were comfortable 3-0 winners. After that it was hard going. Nanjing lost 2-0, Juventud lost 1-3, Blumenau lost 2-0 and Rafaela lost 1-3, each one beaten by the second goal rather than the first. Gwangju had a goal and a quarter of cover, but a 1-3 defeat was too much for it, and Zhetysu’s 1-0 loss left us with half a loss. We take it on the chin. One Saturday like this does not change what the numbers say over hundreds of bets. Short priced favourites win far more often than they lose, and the days they all miss together buy the days they all land together. We reset and go again. Settled bets 1. NWS Spirit U20 5-1 St George Saints ...

A brilliant Friday, and exactly the kind of day the whole thing is built on. Six bets, not a single loser. Four winners, one half winner, and one that handed our stake back on a draw. Up 1.85 units on the day. The two goal and a quarter starts did the business. Drogheda won 2-1 at Dundalk and Botáfogo drew 3-3 at Sport Recife, and with that much in hand both came home comfortably. The draws were kind to us as well. UAI Urquiza were held 0-0, but our bet only needed them not to lose, so it landed. Peninsula Power’s goalless game gave us half a win. Riverside Olympic won 1-0 for a clean one, and Deportivo Maldonado’s 1-1 draw meant our Draw No Bet stake came straight back. No stress and no scares, just short priced favourites doing their jobs. We want a lot more Fridays like this one. Settled bets 1. Peninsula Power 0-0 WDSC Wolves (Aus QLD NPL). AH Peninsula +0.25 @ 1.16. HALF WON, +0.080u 2. Launceston United 0-1 Riverside Olympic (Aus Tasmania NPL). AH Riverside -0.25 @...

A frustrating midweek card, three of the five in profit but the maths landing at minus 0.945u — the winners too short to outrun the two full losses. The shape of a thin summer slate, where the favourites that miss cost more than the ones that hit return. The USL League Two favourites split two from three. Lakeland United and Fort Lauderdale United both won 1-0, settling their minus 0.5 lines for plus 0.53u and plus 0.25u, but Black Rock could only draw 0-0 with FC Boston Bolts, and a minus 0.5 favourite that fails to win is a full loss however tight the game. Three short-priced home favourites, two delivered, one stalled — and at 1.53 and 1.25 the two that won simply do not cover a single 1.67 loss. The two Brazilian picks went opposite ways. Ponte Preta lost 1-2 to Criciúma, but the single-goal defeat pushed the plus 1.0 leg and won the plus 1.5 leg of the plus 1.25 for a half win of plus 0.275u — the quarter line doing precisely what it exists to do. Athletico Paranaense’s Un...

A losing Monday, the column closing at minus 2.195u across seven picks on a thin summer card. Two won, one half won, one pushed and three lost — a below-par strike on a quiet, low-volume slate where the favourites asked to win largely did not oblige. The three full losses all came from sides that simply did not turn up. Sportivo Barracas were beaten 3-2 by Yupanqui, the Double Chance broken. Amazonas lost 0-2 at home to Itabaiana, both legs of the plus 0.25 gone. And Figueirense went down 3-1 at Brusque, a two-goal defeat that cleared out both legs of the plus 1.25. When a favourite loses outright there is nowhere for the handicap to hide. Where the lines did their work, they did it quietly. Mercedes were the pick of the day, a 3-0 away win at CSR Espanol banking the plus 1.25 in full at 1.27 for plus 0.27u. Benjamin Aceval drew 1-1 with Deportivo Capiatá, the draw covering the plus 0.5 Double Chance for plus 0.36u. Sao Bernardo lost 2-1 at Vila Nova but the single-goal margin ...

A near perfect Sunday, and the day that answered Saturday in full. Ten picks staked, ten of them returned a profit, and the column closed at net plus 4.075u with not a single losing bet on the card. Nine won outright or were rescued by the handicap and the tenth half won, which is about as clean as a high strike rate slate ever runs. The two American lower division favourites were the engine of the day. Ballard were devastating, a 7-0 win over Tacoma Stars settling the minus 0.5 line at 1.38 for plus 0.38u, and Project 51O matched the ruthlessness with a 6-1 win over Davis Legacy for plus 0.50u. Ironbound made it three from three in USL League Two, a 3-0 win over Staten Island on the minus 0.5 for plus 0.44u. Three straight favourites, three routs, no anxiety. The Double Chance favourites all held. Rīgas FS II were the pick of them, a 2-0 win over Super Nova II banking the plus 0.5 at a generous 1.67 for plus 0.67u. Deportivo Santaní beat General Caballero 2-1 for plus 0.50u, a...

A red Saturday, and the kind of day a long season has to absorb from time to time. Eleven picks were staked, six of them paid, but five went down as full unit losses and the column closed at net minus 2.46u. The pattern was the mirror image of a good day: the damage came from clean favourites failing at the front of the card, while the quarter and Double Chance cushions that usually rescue us could not stretch far enough to cover it. The green that did arrive came from the smaller northern leagues. ÍBV were the best of the night, a 1-0 win over Valur in the Icelandic top flight settling the Draw No Bet at 1.83 for plus 0.83u. Skála followed in the Faroese league, a 1-0 win over B68 landing both legs of the plus 0.25 split for plus 0.43u. Three Double Chance favourites held their end: Quilmes beat Atlético Atlanta 2-1 for plus 0.37u, Vancouver FC saw off York9 2-0 for plus 0.34u, and Temperley edged Tristán Suárez 1-0 for plus 0.35u. Levadia completed the winners, a 3-1 result at Tr...

A green Friday, and a hard fought one. Eight picks, six of them either won outright or were rescued by the handicap, two went down, and the column closed at net plus 0.36u on eight units staked. It was a night where the quarter and three quarter lines did the heavy lifting: three of the winners lost their actual matches by a single goal and still paid, which is exactly what those cushions are there for. The two clean favourites carried the top of the card. KoPa were the pick of the day, a 4-2 win over STPS in the Finnish regional programme on the minus 0.5 line at 1.70 for plus 0.70u, never in doubt once they pulled clear. Cooks Hill United backed it up down in the Australian Northern NSW grade, a 3-1 win over Valentine that settled the plus 0.5 Double Chance at 1.44 for plus 0.44u. The two League of Ireland games were the story of the night, because both of our teams lost and both still returned. Sligo Rovers led at the Showgrounds through captain Will Fitzgerald, but a red ca...

A narrow losing Thursday. Six picks on the main slate, four winners and two losses, settling at net minus 0.37u on six units staked, a return on investment of minus 6.2 per cent on the day. Both losses were full one unit hits — a home shutout and a two goal defeat — and together they just edged out the four winners. A red day, but a shallow one, well inside the system’s expected variance. The two minus 0.5 favourites in the Baltic and the Nordics both delivered. Tallinna Flora carried the Meistriliiga leg, taken on the minus 0.5 line away at Kuressaare, and won 3-0 (a goal up at the break) to bank plus 0.35u at 1.35. Flora, the most decorated club in Estonian football, controlled the game from front to back and the outright margin never looked in doubt. Kultsu edged a 3-2 win over MiPK in the Finnish regional card for plus 0.60u at the longer 1.60, the minus 0.5 line covered by the single goal margin and the tighter of the two but a winner all the same. The two quarter line cal...

A strong Wednesday to open July. Six picks, five winners including one half on a draw and a single loss, settling at net plus 1.33u on six units staked, a return on investment of plus 22 per cent on the day. Two long price Draw No Bet winners in the United States lower divisions and a value read on the Canadian leaders did the heavy lifting. Tauras carried the Lithuania leg, taken on the minus 0.50 line as the away favourite, and won 3-1 to bank plus 0.37u at 1.37. Forge FC delivered the pick of the card, the plus 0.25 line at 1.185 landing as the league leaders beat Vancouver 3-2. Forge came into the night top of the Canadian Premier League on 25 points with eight wins from ten, against a Vancouver side still searching for a first win of the campaign, and the favourite held even with the late scare a 3-2 always brings. The two Draw No Bet calls in the United States both won. Project 51O won 4-2 to bank the biggest single return of the day, plus 0.88u at the long 1.88 take, a c...