Steadbank

Four picks, two winners. Down 1.46. Celtic Women beat Spartans 4-0 and Cavalier drew 1-1 at Mount Pleasant, which was all the plus one and a quarter needed. Rangers Women only won 1-0 at Partick, a goal short on the minus one and a half, and Seekirchen lost 2-0 to Straßwalchen. Celtic W 4-0 Spartans W (Scotland Women's Premier League): Celtic W -1.50 @ 1.21, won Seekirchen II 0-2 Straßwalchen (Austria Salzburger Liga): Seekirchen II +0.50 @ 1.88, lost Partick Thistle W 0-1 Rangers W (Scotland Women's Premier League): Rangers W -1.50 @ 1.48, lost Mount Pleasant 1-1 Cavalier (Jamaica Premier League): Cavalier +1.25 @ 1.36, won Day close: -1.46u (2 won, 2 lost, from 4).

Three picks from the Czech lower leagues and all three won. Up 3.81 units, the best day since the new card started. Havířov were 2-0 up at Uherský Brod and were pegged back to 2-2 by a late penalty, which on the plus half is still a win at 2.50. Třebíč beat Bohunice 1-0 at 2.40, and Bystrc beat Pelhřimov 2-1 for both halves of the plus quarter. Uhersky Brod 2-2 Havirov (Czech Republic MSFL): Havirov +0.50 @ 2.50, won FS Trebic 1-0 Tatran Bohunice (Czech Republic 4 Liga Group D): FS Trebic +0.50 @ 2.40, won Bystrc Kninicky 2-1 Pelhrimov (Czech Republic 4 Liga Group D): Bystrc Kninicky +0.25 @ 1.91, won Day close: +3.81u (3 won, from 3).

Two picks, one winner and one refund. Up 0.49. Leverkusen Women were 2-0 down at half time to Werder Bremen and came back to win 3-2. A one goal win on the minus one, so the stake came back, which given the first half felt like a result. Baglan won 2-1 at Llanelli, so both halves of the plus quarter won. Bayer Leverkusen Women 3-2 Werder Bremen Women (Germany Frauen Bundesliga): Leverkusen Women -1.00 @ 2.22, stake back Llanelli Town 1-2 Baglan Dragons (Wales Cymru South): Baglan Dragons +0.25 @ 1.49, won Day close: +0.49u (1 won, 1 stake back, from 2).

One pick. Firpo won 3-0 away at Fuerte San Francisco and the Draw No Bet at 1.25 came in. Up 0.25. Fuerte San Francisco 0-3 Firpo (El Salvador Primera): Firpo Draw No Bet @ 1.25, won Day close: +0.25u (1 won, from 1).

Two picks, two winners. Up 1.10. Kreuzlingen beat Brühl on the plus quarter at 1.89. Whyteleafe lost 2-1 to Brentwood, but with a goal and a half start that is still a win. Kreuzlingen 1-0 Brühl (Switzerland Promotion League): Kreuzlingen +0.25 @ 1.89, won AFC Whyteleafe 1-2 Brentwood Town (Isthmian Premier): Whyteleafe +1.50 @ 1.25, won Day close: +1.10u (2 won, from 2).

Two picks and both paid. Up 1.50. Cacahuatique won 2-0 away at Atlético Balboa on the Draw No Bet at 2.37. Voždovac drew 0-0 with Napredak, so the Draw No Bet leg came back and the double chance leg won, a half win overall. Voždovac 0-0 Napredak (Serbia Prva Liga): Voždovac +0.25 @ 1.565, half won Atletico Balboa 0-2 Cacahuatique (El Salvador Primera): Cacahuatique Draw No Bet @ 2.37, won Day close: +1.50u (1 won, 1 half won, from 2).

One pick on Monday. Loznica beat Spartak Subotica 2-0 on the plus half at 1.53. Up 0.50. Loznica 2-0 Spartak Subotica (Serbia Prva Liga): Loznica +0.50 @ 1.53, won Day close: +0.50u (1 won, from 1).

Three picks, one winner. Down 0.89. Juárez Women won 5-1 against Tijuana at 2.17 on the minus one and a half, which more than covered one of the two losers. Ringsted lost 2-1 to Næsby and Slough lost 2-0 at home to Hemel. Ringsted 1-2 Næsby (Denmark 3. division): Ringsted +0.50 @ 2.40, lost Slough Town 0-2 Hemel Hempstead Town (National League South): Slough Town Draw No Bet @ 2.75, lost Juárez W 5-1 Tijuana Women (Liga MX Femenil): Juárez Women -1.50 @ 2.17, won Day close: -0.89u (1 won, 2 lost, from 3).

Three picks, one winner. Down 1.68. Ząbkovia lost a wild game 4-3 at home to Mława, and Aalesund's second team were beaten 7-1 by Rosenborg's. Neither was ever close. Bucaramanga won 3-1 at Once Caldas overnight on the plus one and a quarter, the one that paid. Ząbkovia Ząbki 3-4 Mławianka Mława (Poland III Liga): Zabkovia Zabki -1.00 @ 2.03, lost Aalesund II 1-7 Rosenborg II (Norway 3. divisjon): Aalesund II +0.50 @ 2.10, lost Once Caldas 1-3 Atlético Bucaramanga (Colombia Primera A): Atletico Bucaramanga +1.25 @ 1.34, won Day close: -1.68u (1 won, 2 lost, from 3).

The first card from the new setup, and a single pick. Deportivo Riestra's reserves beat Barracas Central's 3-0, and the Draw No Bet at 1.42 came in. Up 0.40. One pick will be normal on some weekdays now. The system only sends what clears the bar, and some days very little does. Deportivo Riestra Reserves 3-0 Barracas Central Reserves (Argentina Reserve League): Deportivo Riestra Reserves Draw No Bet @ 1.42, won Day close: +0.40u (1 won, from 1).

You will have noticed there were no cards on Monday or Tuesday. After Sunday's results I stopped sending and went through everything. This is what came out of it. The market has changed under us. Since late August most of Europe has started new seasons. Teams have new players, new managers and, early on, very little recent form to judge them by. Bookmakers price those games tightly, and the favourites we were backing kept winning by one goal when we needed two. The bigger prices suffered most. In September, bets priced at 2.00 or more lost heavily while the shorter ones made a small profit. So here is what is different from today. There is now one card instead of two separate selection lanes feeding into it. Both sets of systems are scored together, and only the strongest few make it. Volume is down on purpose. Monday to Thursday has a limit of two picks, Friday three and the weekend three. Only one bet per match. Leagues coming back from a break are handled differently....

Sunday was the low point of the month. Nine picks, one winner, and 5.02 units down. Six of the nine were priced at 2.36 or more, and five of those six lost. Beşiktaş were beaten 3-2 at Amed, Eastern lost 1-0, Sigma Olomouc were beaten 3-0 by Sparta and Lecce lost 3-0 at San Siro. Napoli drew 1-1 in Florence for the only win, and Horsens drew 2-2 with AGF for half. This is the day I stopped sending cards and took the whole selection process apart. I will explain what came out of that in an update later this week. Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli (Serie A): Napoli +0.75 @ 1.28, won Rangers 1-0 Eastern (Hong Kong Premier League): Eastern -1.00 @ 2.38, lost Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha (Czech First League): Sigma Olomouc Draw No Bet @ 2.50, lost Horsens 2-2 AGF (Danish Superliga): Horsens +0.25 @ 2.50, half won Pors Grenland 2-0 Lysekloster (Norway 2. divisjon): Lysekloster +0.25 @ 2.925, lost Trans 1-1 Tallinna FC Levadia (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tallinna FC Levadia -1.00 @ 1.33, lost...

Eight picks and a decent Saturday. Up 1.81. Luzern beat Grasshopper 5-1 at 2.10 and Slovan Liberec Women won 5-1 at 1.95. Three stakes came back. Accrington drew 0-0 on the Draw No Bet, and Linfield and Charleroi both won by one. Swindon lost 1-0 at Salford and still paid half on the plus one and a quarter. Sion drew 1-1 with Zürich, the one loss. Boeung Ket 1-2 Visakha (Cambodian League): Visakha +0.25 @ 1.46, won Slovan Liberec W 5-1 Viktoria Plzeň W (Czech Women's League): Slovan Liberec W -1.50 @ 1.95, won Accrington Stanley 0-0 Newport County (League Two): Accrington Stanley Draw No Bet @ 1.57, stake back Linfield 1-0 Crusaders (NIFL Premiership): Linfield -1.00 @ 1.35, stake back Salford City 1-0 Swindon Town (League Two): Swindon Town +1.25 @ 1.80, half won Luzern 5-1 Grasshopper (Swiss Super League): Luzern -1.00 @ 2.10, won Sion 1-1 Zürich (Swiss Super League): Sion -1.00 @ 1.73, lost Sporting Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge (Belgian Pro League): Sporting Charl...

Six picks, one winner. Down 2.89. Neftçi won 3-0 at Qabala at 1.92, and Harju drew 0-0 for a half win. MO Béjaïa drew 0-0, Paphos lost at home to AEL, Derby's under 21s were beaten 4-1 at Burnley and Finn Harps lost 1-0. Too many of this month's prices are sitting above two and they are not landing. Qabala 0-3 Neftçi (Azerbaijan Premier League): Neftçi -1.00 @ 1.92, won MO Béjaïa 0-0 MO Constantine (Algeria Ligue 2): MO Béjaïa -1.00 @ 2.17, lost Harju Jalgpallikool 0-0 Kuressaare (Estonia Meistriliiga): Harju Jalgpallikool +0.25 @ 1.49, half won Paphos 0-2 AEL (Cyprus First Division): Paphos -1.00 @ 1.73, lost Burnley U21 4-1 Derby County U21 (Premier League 2): Derby County U21 +0.25 @ 1.96, lost Finn Harps 0-1 Longford Town (League of Ireland First Division): Finn Harps +0.25 @ 2.36, lost Day close: -2.89u (1 won, 1 half won, 4 lost, from 6).

Four picks. Two refunds, one winner and one loss. Down 0.40. Ashdod won 3-2 and Real Betis 1-0, two more one goal wins on minus one lines. Orlando Pirates won 2-0, and Málaga lost 3-1 to Villarreal. Ashdod 3-2 Hapoel Rishon LeZion (Liga Leumit): Ashdod -1.00 @ 2.32, stake back Real Betis 1-0 Getafe CF (LaLiga): Real Betis -1.00 @ 2.17, stake back Orlando Pirates 2-0 Durban City (South Africa PSL): Orlando Pirates -1.00 @ 1.60, won Málaga CF 1-3 Villarreal (LaLiga): Málaga CF +0.50 @ 2, lost Day close: -0.40u (1 won, 2 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Four picks, two winners and one refund. Up 0.44. Paide beat Vaprus 2-0 and Hässleholm won 2-0 on the Draw No Bet. Auda won 1-0, stake back. La Equidad lost 3-2 to Atlético Nacional at 2.61. Auda 1-0 Ogre United (Latvian Virsliga): Auda -1.00 @ 1.46, stake back Paide 2-0 Vaprus (Estonia Meistriliiga): Paide -1.00 @ 1.70, won Hässleholms IF 2-0 Ariana (Ettan Södra): Hässleholms IF Draw No Bet @ 1.78, won La Equidad 2-3 Atlético Nacional (Colombia Primera A): La Equidad +0.25 @ 2.61, lost Day close: +0.44u (2 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Four picks, two winners. Up 0.92. Roma won 2-0 in Turin at 1.98, and Torque beat Liverpool of Montevideo 3-1 at 2.04. Bodø/Glimt only beat Sandefjord 3-2, so that one came back. Dundalk were well beaten, 4-0 at home to St Patrick's. Torino 0-2 Roma (Serie A): Roma -1.00 @ 1.98, won FK Bodo - Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord (Eliteserien): FK Bodo - Glimt -1.00 @ 1.22, stake back Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athl. (League of Ireland Premier): Dundalk +0.50 @ 1.80, lost Torque 3-1 Liverpool FC Montevideo (Uruguay Primera): Torque +0.25 @ 2.04, won Day close: +0.92u (2 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Two slips and twelve picks on Sunday. Five won, two half won and five lost. Down 0.96. ASA Aarhus won 1-0 at 2.40, and Benfica, Selangor, Kjelsås and Nordsjælland all won comfortably. Rudeš lost 3-2 in Istra and still returned half the stake on the plus one and a quarter. Molinos El Pirata drew 0-0 for a half win at 3.13. Both Mexican women's picks lost. Tigres were beaten 5-2 by América and San Luis 3-2 by Santos Laguna. ASA Aarhus 1-0 Næsby (Denmark 3. division): ASA Aarhus +0.25 @ 2.40, won Rana 0-1 Lørenskog (Norway 2. divisjon): Rana -0.50 @ 2, lost Selangor 3-0 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia Super League): Selangor -1.00 @ 1.42, won Kjelsås 5-0 Stjørdals-Blink (Norway 2. divisjon): Kjelsås -1.00 @ 1.52, won Arendal 2-0 Kvik Halden (Norway 2. divisjon): Kvik Halden +0.25 @ 1.935, lost Istra 1961 3-2 Rudeš (Croatian HNL): Rudeš +1.25 @ 1.83, half won Nordsjælland 2-0 AGF (Danish Superliga): Nordsjælland Draw No Bet @ 1.42, won Benfica 3-1 Gil Vicente (Primeira Liga): Be...

Nine picks, four winners and five losses. Down 4.06. The short prices won, the long ones lost, and that is becoming a pattern. Al Hilal won 6-0, Levadia 4-0 and Levanger 5-2, and Sheffield Wednesday drew 0-0 on the plus half. All four were priced between 1.21 and 1.33. Every loss was 1.77 or bigger. Kuching won at Melaka, but by one and not the two they needed. Thun lost at home to Grasshopper at 2.43, Cambodia Tiger drew 2-2 at 3.10, and Perth and JDFS Alberts were both beaten. Bayswater City 2-0 Perth (WA NPL): Perth +0.25 @ 2.055, lost Levanger 5-2 Follo (Norway 2. divisjon): Levanger -1.00 @ 1.24, won Cambodia Tiger 2-2 Phnom Penh Crown (Cambodian League): Cambodia Tiger -0.50 @ 3.10, lost Tallinna FC Levadia 4-0 Vaprus (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tallinna FC Levadia -1.00 @ 1.21, won Melaka 1-2 Kuching FA (Malaysia Super League): Kuching FA -1.50 @ 1.77, lost JDFS Alberts 1-2 Valmiera / BSS (Latvia 1. līga): JDFS Alberts Draw No Bet @ 2.25, lost Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Wi...

Seven picks and five winners. Up 0.38, which is less than five from seven usually brings, because the two losers were the two long prices. Casuarina lost a 5-4 game nobody saw coming, and Kerry lost 1-0 on the Draw No Bet at 2.18. Al Thaid won 2-0 at 2.02. KTP, Eidsvold and Al Ahli all won by two or more to clear their minus ones, and Dender won 1-0 at Gent's second team. Casuarina 4-5 Port Darwin (NT Premier League): Casuarina +0.50 @ 2.20, lost Al Thaid 2-0 Dibba Al Fujairah (UAE Division One): Al Thaid +0.25 @ 2.02, won KTP 3-0 JäPS (Finland Ykkösliiga): KTP -1.00 @ 1.58, won Eidsvold 3-1 Ullensaker / Kisa II (Norway 2. divisjon): Eidsvold -1.00 @ 1.22, won Al Ahli 3-1 Al Hazm (Saudi Pro League): Al Ahli -1.00 @ 1.39, won KAA Gent II 0-1 FCV Dender EH (Challenger Pro League): FCV Dender EH +0.50 @ 1.30, won Kerry 0-1 Bray Wanderers (League of Ireland First Division): Kerry Draw No Bet @ 2.18, lost Day close: +0.38u (5 won, 2 lost, from 7).

Three picks and level to the penny, down 0.01. Viimsi made up for last week with a 5-0 win over Elva at 2.04. Tartu Kalev won by one for a refund. Aurora lost 2-1 to Municipal on a plus quarter. Legion 1-2 Tartu Kalev (Estonia Esiliiga B): Tartu Kalev -1.00 @ 1.65, stake back Viimsi 5-0 Elva (Estonia Esiliiga): Viimsi -1.00 @ 2.04, won Aurora 1-2 Municipal (Guatemala Liga Nacional): Aurora +0.25 @ 2.09, lost Day close: -0.01u (1 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 3).

The first card after the changes I wrote about this morning, and three picks. Sundowns beat Siwelele 3-0. Al Nassr won 2-1, one goal again, so that stake came back. Tammeka lost 2-0 at home to Paide. Down 0.43. Tammeka 0-2 Paide (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tammeka +0.25 @ 2.40, lost Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Siwelele (South Africa PSL): Mamelodi Sundowns -1.00 @ 1.57, won Al Nassr 2-1 Abha (Saudi Pro League): Al-Nassr -1.00 @ 1.25, stake back Day close: -0.43u (1 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 3).

This one is worth reading because you will see the difference straight away. Over the last fortnight we tested a set of stricter rules for which systems are allowed onto the card. Each rule was checked against a version of itself with the real information swapped for random noise of the same size. A rule only went live if the real version clearly beat the random one. It sounds fussy, but it is the only way to know a change is real and not just luck in the numbers. Four things changed. Only a short list of the most reliable form filters can now fire a bet. Systems that hardly ever produce a selection are dropped, because a handful of lucky results is not a record. Systems are now ranked on how their particular handicap line and filter have done, not just their overall numbers. And deeper handicap lines, three quarters of a goal and more, get a small lift in the ranking. The effect is big. The pool of systems allowed to bet has gone from around two and a half thousand to around th...

Ten picks and close to level. Four won, one half won, one refund and four losses. Down 0.20. Augsburg won 4-1 in Frankfurt at 2.26 and Horsens won 5-2 at Sønderjyske. Both were away sides on a plus quarter and both won outright. Hearts Women won 7-0 at Montrose. Hearts won 2-1 against Dundee, another one goal win and another refund. Inter Santa Tecla had their keeper sent off after fourteen minutes at Firpo and lost 3-0. Haka lost at home to MP and Municipal drew 0-0. Citizen AA 2-1 South China (Hong Kong First Division): South China -1.00 @ 1.53, lost Grorud 4-2 Rana (Norway 2. divisjon): Grorud -1.00 @ 1.75, won Montrose W 0-7 Hearts W (SWPL): Hearts W -1.50 @ 1.30, won SønderjyskE 2-5 Horsens (Danish Superliga): Horsens +0.25 @ 2.025, won Hearts 2-1 Dundee (Scottish Premiership): Hearts -1.00 @ 1.80, stake back Lørenskog 1-1 Junkeren (Norway 2. divisjon): Junkeren +0.25 @ 2.525, half won Haka 0-2 MP (Finland Ykkösliiga): Haka -1.00 @ 1.44, lost Eintracht Frankfurt 1-...

Two slips on Saturday and a proper bounce back. Ten picks, five winners, two refunds and three losses. Up 2.40. Three prices did the heavy lifting. Silkeborg drew 2-2 at AGF on the plus half at 2.78, Kuching won 2-0 at Sabah at 2.24 and Dumbarton beat Elgin 2-1 at 2.48. AEK put five past Aris. Gloria Bistrita and Skiljebo both won by one away from home, so those two came back. Universitario drew 2-2 at home on a minus one, and Bohemians and Stirling Albion both lost. Stefanesti 1-2 ACS Gloria Bistrita (Romania Liga II): Gloria Bistrita -1.00 @ 2.70, stake back Sparta Brno 1-0 Humpolec (Czech 4. liga D): Sparta Brno +0.25 @ 1.44, won Sabah 0-2 Kuching FA (Malaysia Super League): Kuching City -1.00 @ 2.24, won Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905 (Czech First League): Bohemians +0.50 @ 2.20, lost Lidingö 1-2 Skiljebo (Sweden Division 2): Skiljebo -1.00 @ 1.95, stake back Dumbarton 2-1 Elgin City (Scottish League Two): Dumbarton +0.25 @ 2.48, won Stirling Albion 0-2 Spartans (...

Friday was the worst day of the run. Eight picks, no winners, three stakes back and five losses. Down 5.00 units. Look at how the minus ones finished. Galatasaray won 3-2. Porto won 2-1. Noah won 3-2. Three favourites won their games and not one of them won by two. Connah's Quay could only draw. Loudoun lost a 5-4 game at home on the Draw No Bet, and the two long prices from Kuwait and Tasmania were beaten 3-0 and 5-1. I want to be straight about this. A run of one goal wins on minus one lines is not just bad luck that evens itself out by next week. It tells us something about how tight these early season games are, and I will write about it properly at the end of the month. Al Qadisiya 3-0 Al Naser (Kuwait Premier League): Al Naser +0.25 @ 2.95, lost Artsakh 3-2 Gandzasar (Armenian Premier League): Noah -1.50 @ 1.33, lost İstanbul Başakşehir 2-3 Galatasaray (Turkish Super Lig): Galatasaray -1.00 @ 2.09, stake back Cobh Ramblers 1-1 UCD (League of Ireland First Divisio...

Five picks, one winner. Down 2.38. Alashkert hammered Van 4-0 and cleared the minus one and a half with room to spare. After that it was hard going. Viimsi lost at home to FC Tallinn on a minus one, Al Ahly beat Smouha by a single goal for a refund, and the two big prices, Hafnir at 3.00 and Pereira at 2.72, both lost clearly. Alashkert 4-0 Van (Armenian Premier League): Alashkert -1.50 @ 1.62, won Viimsi 1-2 FC Tallinn (Estonia Esiliiga): Viimsi -1.00 @ 1.38, lost Al Ahly 1-0 Smouha SC (Egyptian Premier League): Al Ahly -1.00 @ 1.64, stake back Hafnir 1-3 Vængir Júpiters (Iceland 4. deild): Hafnir +0.50 @ 3, lost Deportivo Pereira 0-3 Independiente Medellín (Colombia Primera A): Pereira +0.25 @ 2.72, lost Day close: -2.38u (1 won, 1 stake back, 3 lost, from 5).

August finished level, 0.53 units up from 145 picks. Not much movement at the end, but quite a lot happened along the way. The first half of the month was the end of the summer leagues. The second half brought the new seasons in Spain, Portugal, Scotland, Turkey, Greece and the rest, and the card changed with them. The average price went up from 1.50 in July to 1.72, and more of the picks moved onto the minus one line. The bigger prices carried the month. Bets at 2.00 or more made 8.43 units from 36 picks. Everything shorter lost. Keflavík on the minus one at 3.09 was the biggest winner and Sunday the 23rd, ten picks with eight outright winners, was the best day at plus 5.16. The end of the month was harder. The last week cost about ten units, and a lot of it came the same way. Favourites on the minus one line kept winning by exactly one goal, which gives the stake back, or drawing, which loses it. Early in a new season the gaps between teams are smaller than the tables suggest,...

Three picks. Two minus ones won comfortably, Borac 2-0 and Celtic 3-0 over Aberdeen. Kilmarnock lost 1-0 at home to St Mirren on a plus quarter, and that one loss at 1.93 cost more than the two short winners made. Down 0.23. Borac Banja Luka 2-0 Željezničar (Bosnian Premier League): Borac -1.00 @ 1.46, won Celtic 3-0 Aberdeen (Scottish Premiership): Celtic -1.00 @ 1.35, won Kilmarnock 0-1 St. Mirren (Scottish Premiership): Kilmarnock +0.25 @ 1.93, lost Day close: -0.23u (2 won, 1 lost, from 3).

Four picks to close August, one winner. Down 1.80. Qarabağ won 1-0 at Sumqayıt, one goal, stake back. Riga went the other way and were beaten 3-2 at Liepāja on a minus one. Fortaleza drew 1-1 and that was enough on the plus half. Al Masry lost by a single goal to Pyramids. Liepāja 3-2 Riga (Latvian Virsliga): Riga -1.00 @ 1.66, lost Sumqayıt 0-1 Qarabağ (Azerbaijan Premier League): Qarabağ -1.00 @ 1.55, stake back Al Masry 0-1 Pyramids FC (Egyptian Premier League): Al Masry +0.25 @ 2.425, lost Fortaleza 1-1 Operário PR (Brazil Serie B): Fortaleza +0.50 @ 1.21, won Day close: -1.80u (1 won, 1 stake back, 2 lost, from 4).

Two slips on Sunday with twelve picks between them. Four won, one half won, one refund and six losses. Down 2.98. Fenerbahçe were the highlight , 2-0 winners in Samsun at 2.06 on the minus one. CSKA Sofia did the same job at home to Cherno More. Three of the losses were one goal defeats on a plus quarter: Fuerte San Francisco, Mjøndalen and Dundee. A plus quarter refunds half on a draw but gives nothing back when you lose by one. Borac drew 2-2 away on a minus one and LNZ Cherkasy lost 1-0 at home. Odense drew 1-1 at Lyngby for a half win at 2.05, and Aris won by one so that minus one came back. Petržalka akadémia 2-0 Liptovský Mikuláš (Slovakia 2. Liga): Petržalka +0.25 @ 1.39, won Lyngby 1-1 OB (Danish Superliga): Odense +0.25 @ 2.05, half won Aguila 2-1 Fuerte San Francisco (El Salvador Primera): Fuerte San Francisco +0.25 @ 2.91, lost LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Veres (Ukrainian Premier League): LNZ Cherkasy -1.00 @ 1.80, lost Bjarg 1-0 Mjøndalen (Norway 2. divisjon): Mjøndalen +...

The worst day of the month. Six picks, no winners, two stakes returned and four losses. Down 4.00 units. Celtic and Hearts both won 2-1. Exactly one goal, so both minus one bets came back level. That pattern has been turning up a lot and I will come back to it at the end of the month. The rest simply lost. Glentoran were beaten at home by Crusaders, Totton went down 4-0 at Chesham, and Opava's under 19s and Fittja both lost by a goal on lines that needed at least a draw. Opava U19 1-3 Dukla Praha U19 (Czech U19 League): Opava Draw No Bet @ 1.80, lost Fittja IF 0-1 Örebro Syrianska (Sweden Division 2): Fittja -0.50 @ 2.25, lost Celtic 2-1 Falkirk (Scottish Premiership): Celtic -1.00 @ 1.28, stake back Glentoran 1-2 Crusaders (NIFL Premiership): Glentoran -1.00 @ 1.35, lost Hearts 2-1 St. Johnstone (Scottish Premiership): Hearts -1.00 @ 2.29, stake back AFC Totton 0-4 Chesham United (National League South): Totton +0.25 @ 1.91, lost Day close: -4.00u (2 stake back, 4 l...

Five picks, two winners, one refund and two losses. Down 1.33. Azam drew 2-2 at Geita Gold, and a minus one has no answer to a draw. Al Nassr beat Al Taawon 2-1, one goal, stake back. Oxford City lost 3-2 to Buxton, which on a plus quarter is a full loss. Atlético Ottawa and Gimnasia y Tiro both won by a single goal, and on their lines that was enough. Geita Gold 2-2 Azam (Tanzania Premier League): Azam -1.00 @ 1.90, lost Al Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon (Saudi Pro League): Al Nassr -1.00 @ 1.43, stake back Atlético Ottawa 2-1 York9 FC (Canadian Premier League): Atlético Ottawa +0.25 @ 1.40, won Oxford City 2-3 Buxton (National League North): Oxford City +0.25 @ 1.75, lost Gimnasia y Tiro 1-0 Chacarita Juniors (Argentina Primera Nacional): Gimnasia y Tiro +0.25 @ 1.28, won Day close: -1.33u (2 won, 1 stake back, 2 lost, from 5).

Three picks. Down 0.58. Barcelona beat Athletic 2-0 to clear the minus one. Simba won 1-0, so that stake came back. Llaneros lost 2-0 at home to Millonarios with a half goal start, and that was the only real loser. Simba 1-0 Coastal Union (Tanzania Premier League): Simba -1.00 @ 1.25, stake back FC Barcelona 2-0 Athletic Club Bilbao (LaLiga): Barcelona -1.00 @ 1.42, won Llaneros 0-2 Millonarios (Colombia Primera A): Llaneros +0.50 @ 1.79, lost Day close: -0.58u (1 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 3).

Five picks. Four won, one lost, and the day closed 2.58 units up at plus fifty-one per cent. The one loss was the one line that cannot push. Rana needed to beat Follo by two goals on a minus one handicap and the game finished 3-3. A draw takes the full stake on that line, exactly as it did three times on Saturday. Four losses this week on minus one, three of them draws. The two long prices carried the card. JyTy Turku and Al Nasar returned 2.80 units between them. The two short favourites, Real Madrid and America de Cali, returned 0.78 between them. Two bets of the five produced most of the profit, which is what the high odds lane is for. JyTy Turku had no Asian handicap market anywhere , at any bookmaker, and no exchange either. A minus quarter splits into a level line and a minus half, and a minus half on the home side settles identically to a straight home win, so both halves were quotable even though the handicap itself was not. Betway's Draw No Bet at 1.91 and Unibet...

Four picks. Two won, one lost, one pushed, and the day finished 0.71 units up at plus eighteen per cent. A quiet Monday, but two of the four are instructive. Al Ittihad won and returned nothing. They beat Al Hazm 3-2, a one goal margin against a minus one handicap, so the entire stake came back. Nothing won, nothing lost. That is the push working exactly as intended, and it is the reason a minus one is a different animal from a minus one and a half. That selection has a history worth telling. It did not exist on the morning card. The Saudi Professional League's new season was not in our database at all, because the competition reference we had stored still pointed at last season. Once the correct season was downloaded that morning the cell ranked and the pick appeared. It then pushed, so all that work changed nothing on the scoreboard. Some days that is how it goes. Isloch was the biggest winner and I very nearly called it unpriceable. One per cent market coverage, no excha...

Ten picks. Eight won outright, one half-won, one lost. The day closed 5.16 units up at plus fifty-one per cent, and it is the best card I have published this month. Spartak Trnava at 2.49 was the biggest winner and the thinnest market on the slip. I wrote at the time that four of the books quoting that line were one shared feed showing a single price four times, that BetVictor's 2.39 was the only real bookmaker number, and that the exchange had three pounds seventy four behind 2.49. Trnava won 4-0 away. Thin is not the same as wrong. Riga is the one worth dwelling on, because it settles an argument I made on the card that morning. I said the bridge lost to the native line once you weighted the draw properly. The bridge paid more on a win, 1.860 against 1.790, and less on a draw. I took the native. Rigas FS and Riga drew 3-3. On a plus quarter a draw pushes the level leg and wins the half-goal leg, so it settled as a half-win. The bridge would have paid more had Riga won and...

Eleven picks. Five won, one half-won, five lost, and the day finished 1.54 units down at minus fourteen per cent. It is the worst day of the week and the losses share a shape worth setting out plainly. Four of the eleven were on the minus one goal line, and three of them died the same way. Nomme Kalju lost 1-0. Slavia Prague drew 2-2. Union Omaha drew 1-1. Not one of those was a thrashing. Two were draws and the third was a single goal. A minus one handicap has no push protection. If your team wins by exactly one the stake comes back, but a draw is a full loss and it settles no differently from losing four nil. That is the trade you make for the price, and on Saturday the trade went against us three times out of four. Al-Ahli won 4-0 and was the only one of the four that was never in doubt. The quarter lines did the opposite, as they are designed to. Pogon drew 2-2 away from home on a plus quarter, so the level leg pushed and the half-goal leg won. Half the stake back plus half...

8 picks, seven settled and one still to come. Three won, four lost. Down 2.41 units on the day so far, and the worst result of the month. The three quarter lines all lost outright and that is where the day went. Aldosivi were beaten 3-1, Vänersborgs 1-0 and Garliava 2-0. A plus 0.25 gives you protection on a draw and nothing else; none of the three drew, so none of the three got any. Three full units. Worth recording that all three had come in shorter than our own number before kick-off — the sort of move that says money has arrived on the other side. I flagged one of them at the time as sitting in the range where a drop rule would take it out, and noted that the rule is untested and I was not going to trim on it. I still would not, on three bets. But it goes in the record, because the only way that ever becomes a rule worth having is if it is written down before it is convenient. The whole lines were the other story. Auda beat Tukums 3-0 and Haka beat SJK Akatemia 2-0, b...

4 picks. Two won, one returned the stake, one lost. Up 0.22 units. Magni is the one worth explaining, because the game was drawn and it still paid more than half a unit. Dalvík/Reynir and Magni finished 1-1. On a plus 0.25 the Draw No Bet half came back and the Double Chance half won at 2.16, which returns 0.55 units on a drawn game. I want to be precise about something here, because I have been quoting these bridges at their winning price and that is only half the picture. When you build a quarter line from two legs, the headline number — 2.857 on Magni — is what it pays if the team wins. On a draw it settles on the Double Chance leg alone, and that is a smaller number. Both outcomes were set out in the slip before kick-off, so nothing was hidden, but the single figure at the top of a bridge is a win-branch price and I will label it that way from now on rather than let it stand as though it applied to every result. Ottawa won 4-0 and both halves paid. That was the pick w...

4 picks. All four won. Up 3.67 units, the best return per position of the month. Fram at 2.70 was the longest price and the biggest return. They beat Stjarnan 3-1 giving a goal, which pays 1.70 units on its own. That was the pick where I said the price had drifted our way through the day, out from 2.60 to 2.70, and that two independent ways of pricing the line both landed around 2.71 to 2.77 — so we were taking fair value with essentially nothing shaved off it. You rarely get that at a counter and it came off. Both whole lines won by exactly two, which is one goal from a push. Nõmme United U21 won 2-0 and Fram 3-1. On a minus 1.00 you need two, and both got two and no more. Worth noticing on a clean-sweep day: a single goal in either game and the return halves. That is not a criticism of the picks, it is the honest margin they won by. Recoleta drew and that was a win, not a rescue. A plus 0.50 on the away side is a Double Chance exactly — draw or away and nothing else. T...

10 picks across two waves. Six won, one pushed, three lost. Up 0.15 units — which is to say the morning made two units and the evening handed them back. The early card went four from four. Suzhou drew 0-0 and a plus 0.50 pays on a draw. Forward won 5-0 on a minus 1.00 that was never in question. Rana won 3-1 away. Jerv drew and returned nine hundredths on the shortest price of the day. Two and a bit units by quarter to three. On Forward I had written that the market was moving onto our side — their match price had shortened from 1.68 to 1.40 through the morning while the handicap had not caught up. That was the whole bet, and it came in 5-0. Sometimes the read is right and the game agrees. The late card lost two units. Egersund were beaten 4-0, Flora lost 3-2 at home, Lugano lost 2-1. Three defeats out of six, and one of the three that survived only pushed. Levadia is the push and it is a clean example. They won 2-1 away, which on a minus 1.00 is exactly the handicap...

11 picks across two waves. Seven won, three pushed, one lost. Up 3.88 units and the best day of the month. Three pushes in one day, and all three landed on the number exactly. Gwangju were beaten by one on a plus 1.00. Smedby won by one on a minus 1.00. KTP won by one on a minus 1.00. Three whole lines, three results sitting precisely on the handicap, three stakes returned untouched. I said this after the pushes a week ago and it holds: a whole line landing on its exact number is not a near miss. It is the market and the model agreeing about where a game sat, and the game obliging. Three of them in an afternoon is unusual, and on a day where one bet lost, those three returned stakes are the difference between a good day and an ordinary one. The two Queensland youth games at six on Sunday morning were the two biggest prices on the slip and both won. Gold Coast United U23 won 4-3 at 1.89 and Moreton City U23 won 3-2 at 2.20, both Draw No Bet. I asked you to set them the nig...

5 picks. Two won, two lost, one returned the stake. Down 0.42 units. Västerås carried the day and it was the biggest price on the slip. A plus 0.50 on the away side is a Double Chance and nothing else, so it needed a draw or a win, and it got a 3-0 win at Elfsborg. 2.16 on the exchange against a best of 2.00 in twenty shops — sixteen pips of difference on a price that long is real money, and it was the widest exchange edge of that week. Hammarby I warned you about and it lost. I wrote that the price had been shortening all day and was still moving, and that if it had gone a long way by the time you reached it then it was not the bet I was advising. Eskilstuna won 1-0. The market had been moving against our side before kick-off and it kept going in the same direction after it. That is worth recording rather than glossing: when I tell you a price is running away, the honest reading is that somebody knows something, and often enough they do. Brisbane lost 2-1 and played a go...

4 picks, three of them winners, and the day closed four hundredths of a unit down. That is not a typo and it is the most useful thing on this page. Three from four and level. Neftchi returned 0.28, San Luis 0.25, Sogdiana 0.43. Curicó lost a full unit. Add it up and you are four hundredths of a unit short of where you started. Every card on this slip was an Asian plus 0.25 and the average price was around 1.40, which means each winner pays a third of a unit and each loser costs three times that. This is the arithmetic of a short-price portfolio and it is worth internalising rather than rediscovering on a bad week. At these odds you need roughly three winners for every loser simply to stand still. We got exactly that and stood exactly still. A day that reads as a comfortable win in the strike rate column is a flat line in the bank. San Luis is the one to look at, because it drew and still paid. A plus 0.25 is half your stake at level and half at plus a half. The game finis...

4 picks. One won, two lost, one postponed. Down 1.74 units and the worst day of the month so far. Fram were beaten 5-2 and that was the day. It was the longest price on the slip at 2.10, held at five separate shops, and I spent a paragraph pointing out that four bookmakers were showing 1.80 on the same bet and that taking their number would cost you fourteen per cent for nothing. All of which was worth saying and none of which helps when the game finishes 5-2 the wrong way. A Draw No Bet gives you the draw back; it does not give you anything else. Medellín was postponed, which is a void and not a loss. The stake comes back in full. It is worth stating plainly because a postponed fixture sometimes gets recorded as a losing bet by people keeping their own figures, and it is not one. Three positions settled on this card, not four. The one that won was the one I nearly left off. I described Paysandu as the weakest price on the card and wrote that of everything on the slip it...

4 picks. Two won, two lost, and the day closed 1.03 units down. This was the most confident card I have put out in a while and it is worth being honest about how it went. Banga was the one I liked most and it was beaten 3-0. I wrote that it was the strongest position on the slip, that every possible route onto it was priced, and that the exchange bridge cleared our own number by nearly ten per cent. All of that was true and none of it mattered. Sūduva won comfortably and the bet was never alive. There is a distinction here worth drawing carefully, because it goes to the heart of what this service does. Getting the best of five available prices is a real, repeatable advantage and it is most of what I spend my time on. It is not the same thing as knowing which bets win. On Banga the route analysis was correct — the exchange bridge genuinely was the best number on the market — and the selection still lost. Those two things sit alongside each other and always will. Víkingur dr...

8 picks. Five won, one lost, two pushed. A good day, and an unusually instructive one — two of the eight landed exactly on their handicap and returned the stake, which is worth explaining properly because it happened twice in the same afternoon. Hønefoss did the heavy lifting, and then some. 9-1 against Ullensaker/Kisa II. We were on twice — giving half a goal at 1.39 and giving a goal and a half at 1.90 — and by half an hour in neither was in any doubt. Nine goals is not a scoreline you plan for. Two selections on one match is the most this system will take, and it only happens when both lines qualify independently; here the match repaid both without breaking sweat. The two pushes, and why they are not near misses. Rågsved beat Syrianska 2-1 and Charlotte Independence beat Greenville Triumph 1-0. Both were on a –1.00 handicap, meaning they needed to win by two. Both won by exactly one. That is a push: the stake comes back, nothing is won and nothing is lost. People read ...

5 picks. One won, four lost. A bad day and there is no way to present it otherwise, so let me go through what actually happened rather than round it off. Devonport City was the one that worked. 6-0 against Launceston City, giving half a goal at 1.67. Never remotely in doubt. That is the shape of selection this system is built on — a side the market had priced close when the underlying numbers said it should not be. Glenorchy Knights is the frustrating one, because they won. 2-1 against Launceston United, and the bet still lost. We were giving a goal and a half, which needs a two-goal win, and they got there by one. Winning the match and losing the handicap is a specific kind of irritating, but it is not a bad beat — a –1.5 line is priced at 1.59 precisely because winning by two is genuinely harder than winning. The price was telling the truth. VG-62 had the game taken away from them. Down to ten men in the 27th minute and beaten 2-1 by MaPS, on a Draw No Bet at 1.59. Six...