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Results for Sun 14 June 2026

Brutal Sunday. Four winners, three losses, four DNB pushes on the slate. Settled net at -1.90u on all 11 picks, the worst settled day in weeks. The Norway 2.Div Group 1 cluster delivered exactly the damage the morning’s flag warned about. Jerv ground out a 2-1 home win to bank the Money Line at Betfair 1.42 for +0.40u after exchange commission, but Sotra lost 1-0 to Brattvåg and Træff lost 3-2 to Bjarg, both clean DNB busts and matches where the picks had red cards. Picks 5 and 6 shared the same cell, norway-2-div-grp-1 / DNB_H / pick_gpg≥2, 80.5% trailing strike rate over 41 historical bets and when the cell failed today, it failed twice unfortunate as the reds were. The shared-fate flag was raised pre-publish and validated in the worst direction. League net: -1.60u from three picks. Foshan Nanshi v Shaanxi Union was the day’s structural disaster. Shaanxi crushed Foshan 5-0 on the road despite the pick_FTS0 filter qualifying Foshan as a home side that hadn’t failed to score in fiv...
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FULL RESULTS SPREADSHEET

Welcome in, and thanks for reading. If you've just joined, or you've been sent the link and you're having a nose around, this is the page to start on. Everything you need to find your way through the record is linked below (no pressure, just a map). Pick by Pick If you go back to the home page, you will find a log of all my previous picks and results since I started tipping. ⎯⎯⎯ FULL RESULTS SPREADSHEET View Records That spreadsheet holds every bet I've sent since May 2023, with the running bank updated every time a pick settles.  ⎯⎯⎯ Monthly & Yearly Reviews And here's every month-end write-up I've done since the blog opened. The two year-end reviews are bolded, so you can find them easily if you want the bigger-picture ones.  March 2026 Summary February 2026 Summary January 2026 Summary December 2025 Summary November 2025 Summary October 2025 Summary September 2025 Summary August 2025 Summary July 2025 Summary June 2025 Summary May 2025 Summary April 2025 ...
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Results for Sat 13 June 2026

Eight wins from nine on a Saturday slate that closed +2.53u against an expected EV of +3.21u. The single loss came from the Argentinian leg where Ciudad de Bolivar shipped a 1-2 home defeat to Deportivo Moron, but the eight winners more than absorbed it for a +28.1% slate ROI day. Apotheos delivered the headline 2-1 away win at Birmingham Legion II, the cell’s 79.6% trail SR holding up cleanly at the FS bookie Money Line of 1.95 from Betway and Ladbrokes. The clean MW = AH -0.50 bridge identity meant no half-stake mechanic to navigate. +0.95u. Råde’s 7-2 demolition of Raelingen in Norway 3.Div Group 6 was the score of the slate, the gs_diff_7+ filter (Råde scoring 7+ more than Raelingen in last 5) translating directly into a five goal romp. The Ladbrokes Money Line at 1.25 was the take and they smashed through it inside the first half. Pair this with Oppsal’s 4-3 win in the same group an hour earlier and Norway 3.Div Group 6 went 2 from 2 today, both backfill_jun11...
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Results for Fri 12 June 2026

A nine pick Friday closed at +1.01u against an expected EV of +1.92u. The first slate to draw from the new 5,373 system pool merged overnight delivered seven wins or half wins and two full losses, the second of two SPICY tier picks taking the variance hit but the slate leader covering both losses on its own. Al Salmiya at home to Al Kuwait was the call of the day. Skybet posting the Al Salmiya Double Chance Home or Draw at 2.75 was a clean five pip retail edge over Betfair’s 2.70, and the cell signal said the home side had a 75 percent shape regardless of which way the game went. Zero zero at full time. A goalless draw covered the bridge fully and paid +1.75u on the 1u stake. That single result kept the slate positive even after two full losses elsewhere. The two backfill_jun11 cells making their live debut both cashed. SaPa Pieksamaki took Vaajakoski 4-2 in Finland Kolmonen Ita, the Draw No Bet leg paying out at 1.23 from All British Casino. KFR 3-3 with Ulfarnir in Iceland 4 Deil...
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Results for Thu 11 June 2026

A two-pick Thursday delivered a plus 0.520u net day, the slate stitched together by a textbook Al Shabab squeeze and a Landskrona blowout that paid the small price properly. Kuwait Premier League first. Al Shabab one-nil over Al Jahra was the kind of result the +0.25 home split is built for — any home goal settles both legs of the bridge cleanly without the Asian Handicap having to navigate a tight pushable margin. The promotion of the +0.25 line over the morning’s original minus-0.25 read by the monthly trail-cache rebuild proved out: a one-goal win was the modal outcome and both bridges land, the Skybet Draw No Bet leg at 1.45 collecting the headline and the Betfair DC 1X 1.20 covering the second half after exchange commission. Plus 0.320u on a 1u stake. Sweden’s Superettan delivered the surprise. Landskrona, the away dog at +1.25, ran out three-nil winners at Olympia against Helsingborg. The pick_Goal Scored 6+_opp_Goals Conceded8+ filter, Landskrona scoring six-plus in last fiv...
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Results for Wed 10 June 2026

A six-pick Wednesday went minus-1.447u against an expected EV of plus 1.52u, the headline number ugly enough that the underlying market read needs a second look. Phoenix Rising at Casino Arena was the slate leader on adjusted ROI  88% cell SR, plus-90.5% projected, and the F2 SPICY tier flagged it as the pick the market most mispriced. The 2.165 blended split between the Flashscore BetMGM Draw No Bet at 2.55 and the Skybet DC 1X at 1.78 represented two markets agreeing that Phoenix were a coin-flip favourite. Phoenix duly dominated the territorial fight, ran the expected goals battle, and lost two-nil to Louisville City against the visible run of play. The pick_perfect3_cs3+ cell over 25 trail bets at 88% SR allows three losses per twenty-five; this is the third one in a calibrated pattern, not the cell breaking. Painful but expected variance. Sweden’s Superettan caned the slate harder. Varberg two-nil Norrby was the away side losing by exactly the margin that breaks the +1.25 ...
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Results for Tue 9 June 2026

4 picks on a sub-cap Tuesday after the edge-adjusted floor pruned two Sweden Superettan cushion picks. 2 wins, 1 half-win, 1 loss. Day P&L -0.28u. The slate opened brilliantly. SJK Akatemia’s 0-0 draw at home against Jippo in the Finland Ykkösliiga was exactly the result the +1.5 home cushion was built to absorb. The Betfair Exchange take at 1.40, the slate-leader at +28.4% Adj_ROI on the soft_book cell’s 91.7% trail-24 strike rate, paid out cleanly on the draw for +0.38u after the 5% commission. A heavy underdog at home (1X2 priced 4.60), SJK didn’t need to win the game, just stay within one goal of Jippo and a stalemate did exactly that. Värnamo’s trip to Öster delivered the day’s only full loss. Öster ran out 3-0 winners in the Sweden Superettan, which is precisely the shape that takes both legs of the AH +1.25 split down — the +1 leg lost on the 3-goal margin, the +1.5 leg lost on the same, blended -1.00u on the BF take of 1.40. Värnamo  on the surface scoring six-plus ...
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Results for Sun 7 June 2026

11 picks at the WE cap. 5 wins, 2 half-wins, 2 losses, 1 push, 1 promoted bench. Day P&L +0.31u. A nervy Sunday at the cap where the cushion-line mechanics did most of the heavy lifting. The slate opened with a clean sweep at the top of the card. Ariana FC won 2-1 in Sweden Ettan Södra and the Betfair Exchange DNB at 1.35 paid out cleanly for +0.35u, the slate’s lead-off elite cell delivering on its 22.6% trail-24 ROI. Gimnasia Concepción del Uruguay edged Sportivo Belgrano 1-0 in the Argentine Torneo Federal A which paid the BetMGM Double Chance at 1.38 for +0.38u, and Sarmiento de La Banda’s 2-0 home win against Sol de América took the Betway DC 1X at 1.25 for +0.25u. Three FS bookie routes on the home cushion identity, three clean wins. The middle of the card was where the cushion mechanic showed its half-win shape. Mitre lost 2-1 to Godoy Cruz away in the Argentine Primera Nacional — the AH +1.25 split at bet365’s 1.43 paid the +1.5...
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Results for Sat 6 June 2026

 break-even day across the WE cap. The Argentine half of the card delivered. Atlético Atlanta did exactly what their cell expected at the Primera Nacional Sunday slot, winning 3-0 against Gimnasia Jujuy and paying the AH +0.50 at bet365’s 1.30 cleanly for +0.30u. Acassuso’s 2-0 home win against Central Norte triggered both legs of the FS bookie split bridge — half a unit at Betfred’s DNB 1.73 and half at bet365’s DC 1X 1.36, blended +0.545u on the cleanest +0.25 settlement of the day. Dep. Español’s 1-0 at home in Argentina Primera C banked the slate’s biggest single pick — the DNB at BetMGM/BetUK’s 1.58, +0.58u on a textbook home-favourite-wins-by-1 result. The bridges paid on the draws. Los Andes 0-0 Estudiantes Caseros took the BF Exchange DC 1X at 1.27 (+0.27u), 12 de Junio 1-1 Capiatá on Betway’s DC 1X at 1.25 (+0.25u), and Ringsted 1-1 Glostrup paid the split bridge half — the DNB pushed for refund but the BF Exchange DC 1X at 1.35 covered the draw, blended +0.175u. Odder 2...
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Results for Fri 5 June 2026

9 picks settled across 9 fixtures with 1 postponement. 8 wins, 1 half-win, 0 losses. Day P&L +3.20u. A clean Friday and the slate’s most ambitious week with the all-FS-and-BF dual sweep firing on every leg. KäPa losing 1-2 to KTP at home was the exact result the +1.50 cushion is built for, the league leader edged it by a goal and the Betfair Exchange 1.44 take paid in full at +0.44u. Karviná U19 won their Czech U19 fixture 2-1 and the BF Exchange Draw No Bet queue at 1.58 filled and settled clean for +0.58u, the bench-quality bookie-route fallback never needed. Bayswater steamrolled Dianella 4-1 in the WA NPL for +0.22u on the DC 1X — the home favourite at the absolute edge of the floor turned in the biggest scoreline of the night and made the 4-tick floor clearance feel academic. Wanderers and Danubio shared a 0-0 in the Uruguayan Liga AUF and the Double Chance “Wanderers or Draw” at 1.36 on the FS cluster paid +0.36u as the home team held the goalless line. Santo Domingo’s 1-...
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Results for Thu 4 June 2026

3 picks on a thin Thursday card with Betfair Exchange dry across the board. 2 wins, 1 loss. Day P&L -0.48u. Argentina Reserve League carried the whole night with three picks across two fixtures. The Double Chance on Talleres Córdoba 2 v Argentinos Jrs 2 settled clean and the match finished 2-2 and the DC 1X “Talleres or Draw” at bet365’s 1.32 paid +0.32u as the home team held the draw. The bookie route there was a single-book top tier with the cluster lower, so the take was the obvious go on the FS retail comparison. San Lorenzo 2 v Vélez Sársfield 2 was the night’s split decision. We had both an AH +0.50 and an AH +1.50 cushion on the home team after the bench-keeping decision on the deeper cushion despite the all-time bucket warning. San Lorenzo lost 0-1, which is exactly the bucket-boundary case and the +0.50 leg at 1.54 took the full loss (-1.00u) since the cushion only covered a draw, but the +1.50 cushion at 1.20 via the EH +2 bridge held cleanly because a one-goal loss i...
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Results for Wed 3 June 2026

3 picks across 2 fixtures. 2 wins, 1 loss. Day P&L -0.03u. A flat day on the scoreboard but a good one for the process. Sacachispas delivered exactly the kind of result the system loves, a tight 1-0 home win against Berazategui in Argentina Primera C, which paid both the legs we had on the fixture. The AH +0.25 split at 10bet’s 1.77 settled clean as a home win on both halves and returned +0.77u. The +1.00 whole line on Betfair Exchange at the 1.20 take floor wasn’t doing any real work on a Sacachispas victory by any margin, +0.20u banked, but the cushion was there for free if the favourite had slipped to a one-goal defeat. Two-from-two on the headline cell is exactly what the high-N protected cushions are built for. Raja Casablanca was the day’s casualty. The Botola Pro home favourite went down 1-0 to RSB Berkane at home, which is the one outcome the Double Chance 1X “Home or Draw” ticket cannot survive. We had this one held back on a Betfair Exchange queue at 1.27 with a sharp...
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Results for Tue 2 June 2026

4 picks across 4 fixtures. 2 wins, 1 half-win, 1 loss. Day P&L +0.06u. A flat day on a thin Tuesday card and Rosengard the lone full loss. The Swedish home favourite went down 2-1 to Ängelholm at home in the Ettan North, which took the Draw No Bet on the highest-edge cell of the slate down with it. The cushion was sitting comfortably above the take floor and the cell was carrying a +26.9% trail ROI going in — pure scoreline variance on the day, the cell stays live. Plus on the other end, the half-win on Slásk Wrocław II in Poland 2.Liga was the day’s rescue. Podbeskidzie won 2-1 at home, exactly the lose-by-1 outcome that pushes the +1.0 leg of the +1.25 split and pays the +1.5 leg in full. The draw-refund mechanic added +0.33u where a single-line +1.0 would have returned nothing, the kind of result the split market is built for. Junior delivered the headline. The Colombian giant won 3-0 at home against Atlético Nacional in the first leg of the Apertura play-off final, which pa...
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Results for Sun 31 May 2026

9 picks across 9 fixtures. 8 wins, 1 half-win, no losses. Day P&L +2.62u. A clean Sunday across the card and the standout result came out of Peru. Cajamarca held Alianza Lima to a 1-1 draw in the Primera División, the AH plus 1.00 cushion sitting exactly where you want it on the close, full protection against anything short of a two goal defeat, and the 1.60 take paid out clean for +0.60u against one of the most decorated clubs in South American football. The cell behind it carries a Wilson lower bound around 82% over 38 trail bets and an ROI sitting at +13.4%, exactly the kind of mid-cushion line where holding a top-tier opponent to a draw lands as the median outcome rather than the lucky one. The Swedish women's bracket opened proceedings. Hammarby travelled to Vittsjö in the Damallsvenskan and edged the away win 2-1 to bank the Match Winner at 1.22, then Malmö Women followed up with a 3-0 home dispatch of Växjö to settle the AH minus 0.5 line at 1.2...
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Results for Sat 30 May 2026

10 picks across 10 fixtures. 8 wins, 2 losses. Day P&L +0.93u. A Saturday card that worked the way the audited portfolio is supposed to work. The losses both came on the heavy short-priced outright lines, Gamle Oslo at 1.47 in Norway 3.Division group 1 going down 3-1 to Frigg in an early kickoff, and Nõmme Kalju visiting Väprus in Estonia Meistriliiga also dropping 3-1 against the head. Two scoreline-on-the-day fades on cells that average 73-80% strike rate over the trail, well within variance. Every other selection cashed. The cushion swap on Ready vindicated the discretionary call. The cell flagged Ready outright at 3.25 Match Winner; the Betfair Exchange split market on AH plus 1.25 sat at 1.43 with comfortable stack depth. Ready drew 2-2 with Asker, the cushion line wins both legs cleanly and the bet pays out at 1.43 with 5% commission for +0.41u. Outright at 3.25 would have refunded the stake under Draw No Bet but the AH plus 1.25 line delivered the win at a much lower var...
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Results for Fri 29 May 2026

7 picks across 7 fixtures. 7 outright wins, no losses. Day P&L +2.89u. A clean sweep on a Friday card built around mid-tier favourites in the Nordic and Finnish leagues. The headline of the day was Fram in Iceland Úrvalsdeild, the marginal SPICY Draw No Bet pick at 1.80, settling on a thrilling 4-3 home win over Breidablik. Then KaaPo and MaPS both delivered in Finland Kakkonen with comfortable Match Winner cashes. Skála dug out a 2-1 home win against 07 Vestur in the Faroe Islands Premier to land the Draw No Bet at 1.41. Kiffen travelled to Union Plääni in Finland Kakkonen and won 2-0 outright, settling the Asian Handicap plus 0.25 split clean with no half-push needed. National Bank of Egypt drew 2-2 at home, covering the Double Chance 1X comfortably. And Juventude closed the night with a 3-0 home win over América Mineiro in Brazil Serie B, the Double Chance 1X paying out at 1.23. Fram 4-3 Breidablik (Iceland Úrvalsdeild) — Draw No Bet Fram (home) @ 1.80 (Betfair Exchange b...
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Results for Thu 28 May 2026

5 picks staked across 3 fixtures. 1 outright win, 4 losses. Day P&L −3.75u. A tough card after a string of clean results. Tartu Welco came through emphatically with a 4-2 home win against Nõmme Kalju U21 in the Estonian Esiliiga, settling the straight Match Winner at 1.25 for the only ticket in the green column. After that the night turned ugly. Ismaily SC went down 2-1 at home to Pharco in the Egypt Premier League, taking both the AH plus 0.50 Double Chance ticket and the AH plus 0.25 split-line ticket down with them. Union Santa Fe Reserves followed the same script in the Argentine Reserve League, losing 2-0 at home to Gimnasia Mendoza Reserves, again hitting both the AH plus 0.50 Double Chance and the AH plus 0.25 split. Two fixtures, four losses, the textbook cluster-loss event the system has been getting more vigilant about lately. Wadi Degla pick was not staked in the end so dropped from settlement. Tartu Welco 4-2 Nõmme Kalju U21 (Estonian Esiliiga) ...
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Results for Wed 27 May 2026

5 picks across 4 fixtures. 5 outright wins, no losses. Day P&L +1.32u. A clean midweek sweep with every ticket taken on Betfair Exchange direct, no bookie bridges required. The headline of the day was the Altay double-dip in the Kazakhstan Premier League, where the home side held Astana to a 1-1 draw, settling both the Asian Handicap plus 1.5 ticket and the plus 1.25 split-line ticket as full wins. The cushion structure did exactly what it was supposed to do, a draw covering both halves of the +1.25 split without any pushes. Then Armenia delivered a double, Ararat-Armenia winning 1-0 at home against FC Gandzasar to land the Match Winner at 1.20, and Pyunik digging out a 2-1 home win against Van to settle the Match Winner at 1.28. The night closed with Hammarby W travelling to Eskilstuna United W in the Allsvenskan Women Round 3, taking the points 1-0 to land the away Match Winner at 1.27. Five out of five, all clean wins with no half settlements. Altay 1-1 Astana (Kazakhstan...
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Results for Tue 26 May 2026

No picks today. Quiet Tuesday slate, nothing cleared the take-floor and the audit-driven gates left the candidate pool empty by the time the cap and country filters had run. Day P&L 0.00u. Running unchanged. Back tomorrow with the midweek card. DR
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Results for Mon 25 May 2026

5 picks across 5 fixtures. 4 outright wins, 1 loss. Day P&L +0.665u. The bank rebuilds after Sunday's heavy session. The headline of the day was Union Carl Berner in Norway 3rd Division group 1, the marginal SPICY pick that sat exactly one tick above the take-floor at SpreadEX, paying out the 0.70u in full on a 1-0 home win. So a watch-list selection delivered the day's biggest single ticket. Plus Envigado came back from 1-2 down in Colombia to win 3-2 away at Real Cartagena, covering the +1.25 line comfortably. Horsens travelled to Lyngby in the Danish 1st Division and won 2-0 to land both halves of the bet365 +1.25 split. HB Torshavn dug out a 2-1 away win at B68 in the Faroe Islands Premier, settling the MW plus DNB bridge at the full +0.325u. The single loss was Bohemians at home to Shamrock Rovers in the Dublin derby, where the visitors edged a 2-1 result and took both legs of the DNB plus DC bridge with them. B68 1-2 HB Torshavn (Faroe Islands Premier League) —...
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Results for Sun 24 May 2026

10 picks across 8 fixtures. 2 outright wins, 2 half-wins, 6 losses. Day P&L −4.375u. A heavy Sunday across the board. The Argentine Primera Nacional cluster, four picks on dog covers at AH +1.25, returned only two payers, and even those two were both fractional. Cerro overran Central Español 1-0 in Uruguay and both legs on the away cover lost. Zhejiang were dismantled 5-0 at home by Liaoning Tieren in the Chinese Super League, a result the model had flagged as the marginal one going in. The headline win came from Viktoria Plzeň Women, who travelled to FC Praha Women in the Czech relegation group and won 2-0, paying the slate's standout retail-edge price of 1.91 at Betfred. Cruzeiro held on to edge Chapecoense 2-1 at home, the one-goal margin landing exactly on the half-win zone of the -0.75 split-line. Atlético Atlanta dug out a 1-0 win at San Martín Tucumán to bank the Argentine away dog cover in full. Cerro 1-0 Central Español (Uruguay Primera Intermedio) — AH +0.50...
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Results for Sat 23 May 2026

8 picks across 5 fixtures. 7 wins (one half-win), 1 loss. Day P&L +2.32u. A clean rebound after Friday's 50-50 result. Two of the three double-positions paid in full and the third half-paid on a draw, with Uppsala the lone disappointment. Hradec Králové U19 ran out a 3-0 winner against Slavia Praha U19 — comfortable cover on the -0.5 line. Hammarby W travelled to Kristianstad and edged it 1-0, banking both the -0.5 and -0.25 cells without drama. Al Salmiyah delivered the headline result at home in Kuwait, ruthless 3-0 over Al Shabab that crushed both the -0.5 and the -0.25 blend-bridge legs. The Karlstad-Arlanda 0-0 was the variance amplifier — full pay on the +0.5 DC line and a half-win on the +0.25 quarter via the draw-refund mechanic. Uppsala W were the only down note, losing 4-2 at Brommapojkarna where the +0.25 line gave no protection against a two-goal margin defeat. Hradec Králové U19 3-0 Slavia Praha U19 (Czech U19 League) — AH -0.50 Hradec ≡ MW @ 1.53 (Betfred) ...
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Results for Fri 22 May 2026

8 picks across 6 fixtures. 4 wins, 4 losses. Day P&L -2.00u. A 50-50 night on a Nordic-heavy slate, with the two correlated double-positions splitting in opposite directions. Keflavík delivered the clean win at home, paying both the +0.25 and the +0.50 cells; the Suwon double-tap in Korea moved the other way when Gyeongnam edged a 3-2 result and Suwon couldn't quite cover either half-line. Kingborough Lions were the headline retail-only overlay and they justified the 1.67 at Unibetuk with a 4-0 away rout. Drogheda's 1-1 draw at home to Dundalk took the +0.50 DC line full, and the bigger disappointments came in single-pick fixtures — Qviding lost narrowly at home in Sweden Division 2 and KA went down to Valur 0-1 in the Iceland Úrvalsdeild headline match. Clarence Zebras 0-4 Kingborough Lions (Australia NPL Tasmania) — MW Kingborough Lions ≡ AH -0.50 A @ 1.67 (Unibetuk) — WON, +0.67u Gyeongnam 3-2 Suwon (South Korea K League 2) — AH +0.50 Suwon @ 1.44 (Betfair Exch...
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Results for Thu 21 May 2026

6 picks. 4 wins, 1 half-win, 1 loss. Day P&L +0.67u. A clean Thursday after the early Legia II setback. Atromitos were the headline result, putting six unanswered past Panserraikos in Greek Super League 2. The model had liked the home side at unbeaten form going in and a DNB take at 1.28 was the safety net we never needed. Skara doubled up at Tord with a 2-1 away win paying full on both the AH +0.25 and AH +0.50 legs, and Vélez Reserves edged River Plate Reserves 1-0 to validate the retail bridge that beat the direct AH price by 52 per cent. ÍA shared four goals with ÍBV for the quarter-line half-win. KP Legia Warsaw II v Widzew Łódź II (Poland III Liga) — AH -0.50 Legia II ≡ MW @ 1.81 (Betfair Exchange) — LOST, −1.00u Tord 1-2 Skara FC (Sweden Division 2 Norra Götaland) — AH +0.25 Skara @ 1.49 (Betfair Exchange) — WON, +0.49u Tord 1-2 Skara FC (Sweden Division 2 Norra Götaland) — AH +0.50 Skara ≡ DC X2 @ 1.42 (Betfair Exchange) — WON, +0.42u ÍA Akranes 2-2 ÍBV (Ice...
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Results for Wed 20 May 2026

5 picks. 2 wins, 3 losses. Day P&L −2.43u. A rough Wednesday on a thin midweek slate. Katowice came good as the pre-match form suggested — 4-1 away in Poznań, both bridge legs paying full. Dinamo Tbilisi held Dila to a 0-0 in the Tbilisi derby, which lands the +1.25 quarter cleanly. The damage was at Mount Pleasant where Portmore took the away win 2-1, and in the Algerian play-off final where Temouchent edged it 1-0 to keep their own promotion hopes alive. Two strong cells from Mount Pleasant double-stacked the loss column. Lech-UAM Poznań W 1-4 Katowice W (Poland Ekstraliga Women) — AH -0.25 Katowice W (split DNB 1.15 + MW 1.44) — WON, +0.30u Mount Pleasant 1-2 Portmore United (Jamaica National Premier League) — AH +0.25 Mount Pleasant (split DNB 1.37 + DC 1X 1.22) — LOST, −1.00u Mount Pleasant 1-2 Portmore United (Jamaica National Premier League) — DC 1X Mount Pleasant or Draw @ 1.22 — LOST, −1.00u Dila Gori 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi (Georgia Erovnuli Liga) — AH +1.25 Di...
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Picks for Mon 18 May 2026

5 picks today. Three of five came in and the day still finishes a touch in the red. The two quarter-handicap picks at +0.25 — Landskrona on the road in Sweden and Al-Nahda in Oman — both lost by a single goal, which is the harshest result possible on those lines because the half-stake refund on a draw goes the other way and you take a full unit loss instead of getting half back. Arlanda's 0-0 in Eskilstuna landed the Draw-or-Away play at 1.69, the cleanest price of the day. El Geish ground out 1-0 against Pharco in Cairo to settle the home Double Chance pick at 1.22. And Waterford pulled off the standout result of the slate — beating Drogheda 2-1 at home as a clear underdog cleared the +1.50 cover on the original line and gave us the win that the model rated the most stable cell on the slate. AFC Eskilstuna v Arlanda (Sweden Ettan Norra) — Away DC Draw or Arlanda @ 1.69 (≡ AH +0.50) — won (0-0) GIF Sundsvall v Landskrona (Sweden Superettan) — Away AH +0.25 Landskrona @ 1.5...
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Picks for Sun 17 May 2026

8 picks today. Eight from eight on the Sunday slate, thirteen from thirteen across the weekend, the bank pushes deeper into the green. Plus delta landed on both Copenhagen plays at the zero and quarter line, and Barcelona kept the engine humming at three one. Quiet midweek now well behind us. Kuressaare v Nõmme Kalju (Estonia Meistriliiga) — Away AH -0.50 Nõmme Kalju @ 1.40 — won Viktoria Plzeň v Jablonec (Czech Republic 1. Liga) — Home AH -0.25 Plzeň @ 1.33 — won Partick Thistle W v Hibernian W (Scotland SWPL 1) — Away AH -0.50 Hibernian W @ 1.19 (MW bridge) — won Carl Zeiss Jena W v 1. FC Köln W (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Away AH -0.50 1. FC Köln W @ 1.30 (MW bridge) — won FC Copenhagen v Randers (Denmark Superliga) — Home DNB FC Copenhagen @ 1.31 — won FC Barcelona v Real Betis (Spain La Liga) — Home AH -0.75 FC Barcelona @ 1.40 — won FC Barcelona v Real Betis (Spain La Liga) — Home AH -0.50 FC Barcelona @ 1.35 — won FC Copenhagen v Randers (Denmark Sup...
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Picks for Sat 16 May 2026

5 picks today. Five from five and the bank pushes back into the green after a quiet midweek. Both +0.5 lines cashed on draws (Jeonnam 2-2, Almirante 0-0), and the Hannover cell pulled another clean sheet to extend its trail run to 47 from 51. Kaya rolled past Aguilas 3-1 to clear the -0.75 with room. Plus Taguig 3-0 cashed both legs of the bridge at SpreadEX and bet365. Kaya v Aguilas (Philippines PFL) — Home AH -0.75 Kaya @ 1.55 — won Taguig v Stallion (Philippines PFL) — Home AH -0.75 Taguig @ 1.70 (blend) — won Hannover 96 II v Bremer SV (Germany Regionalliga Nord) — Home DNB Hannover 96 II @ 1.53 — won Jeonnam Dragons v Cheongju (South Korea K League 2) — Away AH +0.5 Cheongju @ 1.71 — won Almirante Brown v San Telmo (Argentina Primera B Nacional) — Home AH +0.5 Almirante Brown @ 1.23 — won Day close: +2.72u (5 paid of 5). Running: +441.31u. DR
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Picks for Fri 15 May 2026

Another quiet day with no picks going out. The engine scanned the full fixture list and found twenty-one matches worth a closer look, but every single one fell short on the price check before the slate could go live. Some had bookmaker prices that didn't line up with what our model said a fair bet looked like. Two were in leagues where Betfair Exchange doesn't post reliable Asian Handicap prices, which is a filter we tightened this week. The rest were too short once Betfair's 5% commission gets factored in. The weekend slate will fill out properly Saturday morning once Friday night's stats update lands. Worth saying the engine got a meaningful upgrade today. The way we rank our betting systems — the rotation that decides which markets and filters earn a spot on the daily slate — switched to a more conservative ranking method. The old one occasionally let a short hot run push a thin system into the active list. The new method requires the sample size to actually back u...
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Picks for Thu 14 May 2026

No slate today. The engine scanned the full fixture list and nothing came through the price check at a level we'd be happy taking. Twelve matches showed up as worth a closer look. Half of them got dropped because the bookmaker price needed to be a little higher to clear our 5% Betfair commission floor. Three more got dropped because the form data on one of the teams was a couple of days stale. The last three didn't quite line up against the typical Betfair Exchange price on the line we wanted. That's the empty-day pattern we want — better to walk away than force picks onto a thin slate just because the date is on the calendar. A short note on the bigger picture while the slate sits quiet. Our three-year audit closed in April with a 78.28% strike rate across 5,000 settled bets, an +8.56% return on investment, and +428.24 units of profit on a 1u flat stake. Thirty-four of thirty-six months were profitable across that window. The last twelve months sits at +77u and a 77.4% s...
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Picks for Wed 13 May 2026

A single-pick Wednesday and it didn't get there. Getafe ran out 3-1 winners over Mallorca at the Coliseum so the +1.25 cover at 1.21 BF Exchange went the full distance against — lost by two takes the quarter line out at both halves. The slate was thin by design: scanner produced four raw triggers, the real-price gate dropped Athletic Bilbao at sub-1.20 (queue would have filled at 1.16 which is below the post-commission floor we work to) and the two Tanzania bridgeable-line picks were gated for fixture-data mismatch and kickoff timing respectively. So Mallorca on its own carried the day and the cover didn't come. After yesterday's clean sweep this is the variance partner — same line, same filter, the result just didn't break our way this time. The trail-12 floor for the +1.25 away workhorse sits comfortably above 75% on the IS/OOS-validated pool, so the cooler patch since May 6 reads as normal regression rather than a system fault — observed 14-day SR over 47 settled bet...
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Picks for Tue 12 May 2026

Three picks today, all winners — the six-day losing run is snapped with a clean 3 from 3 on the AH +1.25 away workhorse line. So Kabel Novi Sad clipped FAP 2-1 in the Serbia relegation play-off, paying the +1.25 cover full at 1.40 after the queue filled. Plus Levante held their cover at Celta with a 3-2 win on the La Liga stage, the deepest book on the slate at 1.47. And São Bernardo flattened Londrina 3-0 in Brazil Serie B to round it off at 1.23. After six days at 48% strike rate against the long-run 78-81% norm the bank is finally regressing toward mean — same line, same gate, same prices, the variance just landed on the right side this time. Expect the next 10-20 firings to continue normalising back toward audit baseline rather than another anomaly cluster. FAP v Kabel Novi Sad (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 Kabel Novi Sad @ 1.40 — won Celta de Vigo v Levante UD (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 Levante UD @ 1.47 — won Londrina v São Bernardo (Brazil Serie B) — Away AH...
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Picks for Mon 11 May 2026

Two picks today. Third losing day in a row. Plus a doubled-up Buenos Aires fixture went down both legs, with Almagro covering away in Primera Nacional and sinking both Nueva Chicago home lines. So the composite ranked these the strongest pair of any slate this week but the prices were knife-edge (1.25 and 1.20) and there is no half-win path on a straight away win. Still the bank holds at +438u, well in the green over the long run. Nueva Chicago v Almagro (Argentina Primera Nacional) — Home AH +0.25 Nueva Chicago @ 1.25 — lost Nueva Chicago v Almagro (Argentina Primera Nacional) — Home AH +0.50 Nueva Chicago @ 1.20 — lost Day close: -2.00u (0 paid of 2). Running: +438.49u. DR
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Picks for Sun 10 May 2026

Seven picks today. Second slow day in a row. So Rayong drew 1-1 in Thai top flight, paying the home +0.5 cushion at 1.91, the standout price of the slate. Plus Qingdao won 3-1 at home to pay the +0.25 quarter clean. And Yongin took the K-League 2 cover too. But the Fredericia pair both went down on a 2-0 Vejle win, Kaisar lost 3-0 in Kazakhstan as the pricing review queue had warned, and Gimhae's away line dipped on a 2-1 home result. Net day a small dip. Yet the bank stays well in the green after the run. Vejle v Fredericia (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.25 Fredericia @ 1.57 — lost Ansan Greeners v Yongin City (South Korea K League 2) — Away AH +0.50 Yongin @ 1.31 — won Vejle v Fredericia (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.50 Fredericia @ 1.41 — lost Aktobe v Kaisar (Kazakhstan Premier League) — Away AH +1.25 Kaisar @ 1.55 — lost Qingdao Youth Island v Wuhan Three Towns (China Chinese Super League) — Home AH +0.25 Qingdao @ 1.32 — won Rayong v Bangkok United (...
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Picks for Sat 9 May 2026

Six picks today. Frauen Bundesliga did the heavy lifting — Freiburg shipped four to Wolfsburg in a 2-4 thriller (six goals, Over 2.5 home), and Köln edged Hamburg 2-1 for the second Over cover. Sevilla beat Espanyol 2-1 at home, paying the +1.25 cushion at half-win. The damage came from Adama City's 4-0 win over Shire in Ethiopia — both Shire lines went down full, the kind of heavy loss the system books once every four or five fires when this filter misfires. Valladolid took care of Zaragoza in Spain Segunda for the third loss of the day. Net day a small dip; bank stays positive. Adama City v Shire Endaselassie (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.50 Shire @ 1.70 — lost Adama City v Shire Endaselassie (Ethiopia Premier League) — Away AH +0.25 Shire @ 1.92 — lost Freiburg W v Wolfsburg W (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Over 2.5 goals @ 1.43 — won 1. FC Köln W v Hamburg SV W (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Over 2.5 goals @ 1.56 — won Sevilla v RCD Espanyol (Spain La L...
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Picks for Fri 8 May 2026

Three picks today. Three from three. Kahraba Ismailia and Pharco played out a goalless draw in the Egyptian relegation group — exactly the back-against-the-wall scrap the audit signal pointed at, and both the +0.50 cover and the +0.75 cushion paid full. SC Delhi v Odisha FC went 1-2 to the away side in the Indian Super League play-offs, so the +1.25 hedge cleared cleanly. A clean Friday after the Wednesday wobble. Kahraba Ismailia v Pharco (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.50 Kahraba @ 1.53 — won Kahraba Ismailia v Pharco (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.75 Kahraba @ 1.36 — won SC Delhi v Odisha FC (India Indian Super League) — Away AH +1.25 Odisha @ 1.51 — won Day close: +1.40u (3 paid of 3). Running: +444.81u. DR
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Picks for Thu 7 May 2026

Four picks today. Three of the four landed. National Bank's goalless draw with Ismaily in the Egyptian relegation group paid the +0.50 cover in full and the +0.25 half — exactly the kind of back-against-the-wall fixture where the audit edge tends to show up. FAP held Dubočica 1-1 away in Serbia and the +1.25 cushion cleared cleanly for the full win. Only Etincelles came up short, going down 1-4 in Khartoum to leave the loss column with one entry. Dubočica v FAP (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 FAP @ 1.40 — won Al Merreikh v Etincelles (Rwanda National) — Away AH +1.25 Etincelles @ 1.70 — lost National Bank Egypt v Ismaily (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.50 NBE @ 1.20 — won National Bank Egypt v Ismaily (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.25 NBE @ 1.30 — half won Day close: -0.25u (3 paid of 4). Running: +442.42u. DR
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Picks for Wed 6 May 2026

Five picks today. A bruising Wednesday. Shanghai Port's draw with Shenzhen Peng City paid the half-win cover, and that was the only piece of green on the slate. Three CSL home favourites all lost on the same afternoon to opponents the model had flagged as offensively cold — and Wydad were too strong at home for the +1.25 cushion to hold despite bet365's standout 1.83 quote. One of those days where the audited edge sits down for ninety minutes. Yunnan Yukun v Zhejiang Professional (China Super League) — Home AH +0.25 Yunnan @ 1.55 — lost Wuhan Three Towns v Qingdao Hainiu (China Super League) — Home AH +0.25 Wuhan @ 1.53 — lost Shanghai Port v Shenzhen Peng City (China Super League) — Home AH +0.25 Shanghai Port @ 1.25 — half won Hegelmann v FK Panevėžys (Lithuania A Lyga) — Under 3.5 goals @ 1.31 — lost Wydad Casablanca v CODM Meknès (Morocco Botola Pro) — Away AH +1.25 CODM Meknès @ 1.83 — lost Day close: -3.88u (1 paid of 5). Running: +442.67u. DR
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Monthly summary — April 2026 & Year 3 Summary

Year 3 closes with +447.54 points banked across 4,779 verified bets. The April column added another +2.55 points across 142 picks at a 71.83 percent strike rate. And the maximum drawdown that has stood since May 2023 still sits at 11.54 points. The standout column for April was the Scottish women's top flight, with 6 picks, 6 wins, and +3.93 points off the April column (a remarkably clean run). Hearts W beating Celtic W 4-1 on the 1st at AH -0.75 odds of 2.74 was the big result. And a women's league system this strong would be ignored by most punters because the recreational money never goes near it. That is largely the point. Best day was the 23rd, 3 picks all home, with Mazatlán covering the +0.50 line in a 4-3 against Toluca at 2.74 the biggest single winner of the month at +1.66 points. The biggest loss came on Friday the 10th. 4 picks lost for 3.35 points off the column. The model recovered inside a fortnight and finished the month green. And Argentina Primera B Metr...
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Picks for Mon 4 May 2026

Four Picks today. Three on the Betfair Exchange and 1 women's match that's on bookies only. Sometimes German Women games are on exchanges close to kick-off and sometimes they're no. Quarter bets really did their jobs today with two half-won matches.  JS Omrane v ES Tunis (Tunisia Ligue 1) — Home AH +1.25 JS Omrane @ 1.73 — half won Rapid Bucureşti v CFR Cluj (Romania Superliga) — Away AH +1.25 CFR Cluj @ 1.23 — won Sevilla v Real Sociedad (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 Real Sociedad @ 1.22 — half won Eintracht Frankfurt W v Nürnberg W (Germany Frauen Bundesliga) — Over 2.5 goals @ 1.28 — won Day close: +0.99u (4 paid of 4). Running: +447.53u. DR
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Picks for Sun 3 May 2026

Seven picks today. Six on the Betfair Exchange and one bookie-only pick on a Spanish reserve fixture. København added a 3-3 at Fredericia after five wins on the bounce for Bo Svensson's side. So the +0.25 cover paid half on the draw. Plus an earlier OB loss to Silkeborg kept København's cushion on seventh in the qualification playoff intact, so the dropped points carried less weight than the scoreline alone suggests. Fredericia v København (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.25 København @ 1.22 — half won Randers v Vejle (Denmark Superliga) — Away AH +0.75 Vejle @ 2.19 — half lost Grafičar v Tekstilac Odžaci (Serbia Prva Liga) — Away AH +1.25 Tekstilac @ 1.40 — won Ghazl El Mehalla v Ismaily (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.50 Ghazl @ 1.25 — won Panevėžys v Žalgiris (Lithuania A Lyga) — Under 3.5 goals @ 1.37 — won Ghazl El Mehalla v Ismaily (Egypt Premier League) — Home AH +0.25 Ghazl @ 1.35 — half won Castellón II v Girona II (Spain Segunda RFEF Group...
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Picks for Sat 2 May 2026

Seven picks today. A quick word for anyone new to the list this weekend. Same shape every day. Picks go up the morning of the card, results fill in as matches settle, and the running total chains through each post. Plus every post stands as it lands. So the bank does the talking. Glad to have you on board. Six countries on the slate today, all sitting outside the top five league nations. And three AH +1.25 covers fired, all three paid, two of them outright and one taking the half on a +1.5 leg after a 3-2 NorthEast win. So the weekend reads +3.23u from 12 picks at 91.7%. Etincelles v Amagaju (Rwanda National Soccer League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.45 — won Bangkok United v Ayutthaya United (Thailand Thai League T1) — Home AH +0.50 @ 1.44 — won NorthEast United v Inter Kashi (India Indian Super League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.31 — half won Tauras v Atmosfera (Lithuania 1 Lyga) — Away AH +0.25 @ 1.49 — lost UKS SMS Łódź v UJ Kraków W (Poland Ekstraliga Women) — Home AH -0.75 @ ...
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Picks for Fri 1 May 2026

Five picks today. Tianjin Teda v Wuhan Three Towns (China Chinese Super League) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.47 — half won Marines v Gasogi United (Rwanda National Soccer League) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.29 — won WA Tlemcen v Koléa (Algeria Ligue 2) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.82 — won Manisa BBSK v Sakaryaspor (Turkey 1 Lig) — Home AH -0.25 @ 1.69 — won Real Zaragoza v Granada CF (Spain Segunda Division) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.35 — won Day close: +2.27u (5 from 5). Running: +445.84u. DR
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Picks for Thu 30 Apr 2026

Five picks today. Stade Tunisien v Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (Tunisia Ligue 1) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.67 — won Kitara v SC Villa (Uganda Uganda Premier League) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.15 — won Ethiopia Bunna v Welwalo Adigrat Uni (Ethiopia Ethiopia Premier League) — Home AH +1.25 @ 1.15 — lost Troszyn v Znicz Biała Piska (Poland 3 Liga Group 1) — Home AH +0.25 @ 1.22 — won Olympique Dcheïra v UTS Rabat (Morocco Botola Pro) — Away AH +1.25 @ 1.32 — won Day close: +0.29u (4 from 5). Running: +443.57u. DR
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