Picks for Mon 18 May 2026

5 picks today.

Three of five came in and the day still finishes a touch in the red. The two quarter-handicap picks at +0.25 — Landskrona on the road in Sweden and Al-Nahda in Oman — both lost by a single goal, which is the harshest result possible on those lines because the half-stake refund on a draw goes the other way and you take a full unit loss instead of getting half back. Arlanda's 0-0 in Eskilstuna landed the Draw-or-Away play at 1.69, the cleanest price of the day. El Geish ground out 1-0 against Pharco in Cairo to settle the home Double Chance pick at 1.22. And Waterford pulled off the standout result of the slate — beating Drogheda 2-1 at home as a clear underdog cleared the +1.50 cover on the original line and gave us the win that the model rated the most stable cell on the slate.

1. AFC Eskilstuna v Arlanda (Sweden Ettan Norra) — Away DC Draw or Arlanda @ 1.69 (≡ AH +0.50) — won (0-0)
2. GIF Sundsvall v Landskrona (Sweden Superettan) — Away AH +0.25 Landskrona @ 1.55 — lost (Sundsvall 2-1)
3. El Geish v Pharco (Egypt Premier League) — Home DC El Geish or Draw @ 1.22 (≡ AH +0.50) — won (1-0)
4. Bahla v Al-Nahda (Oman Professional League) — Away AH +0.25 Al-Nahda @ 1.43 (split execution) — lost (Bahla 2-1)
5. Waterford v Drogheda United (Republic of Ireland Premier Division) — Home AH +1.50 Waterford @ 1.30 — won (Waterford 2-1)

Quick aside on Waterford. They've been one of the form anomalies in the Irish Premier this spring — middle of the table on points but the home form has been quietly excellent against the top sides. Drogheda came in as away favourites at around 2.30 to win the match outright and the model rated Waterford's home cover at +1.5 as one of the deepest cells in the active list, 139 settled bets at a 93% strike rate. They delivered. Sometimes the deepest cell on the slate is the one that quietly does the work.

Day close: -0.79u (3 paid of 5). Running: +443.06u.

DR