Results for Sat 25 July 2026

9 picks today.

Santos will not enjoy reading their own numbers. Twenty one shots to five. Sixty four percent of the ball. Expected goals of 1.74 to 0.86. Twelve corners to one. Fifty seven touches in the Chapecoense box against five at the other end, and ninety one entries into the final third against thirty nine. Neymar scored twice and finished with a 9.5 rating off nine shots. Santos still did not win. They led at the interval, conceded to Marcinho straight after it, put through their own net on the hour, and needed a Neymar penalty in the 89th minute simply to draw level with the team sitting bottom of the table. Matheus saved five, two of them big. On a -1.00 line none of that pays, and the full stake goes.

Haka and Charlotte did the quiet opposite, winning by exactly the two goals their line asked for. Haka was the only pick on the card priced above our own model, 1.69 against a derived 1.688, so the best value we held was also the one that delivered. Both quarter lines came back halves. Iguatu drawing 1-1 pushes the level leg and wins the +0.5, and Junior losing by one pushes at +1.0 and wins at +1.5. Fort Wayne carried the highest adjusted ROI on the card at +38.6 percent and lost 3-1, which is how variance tends to introduce itself.

1. Haka 3-1 KaPa (Finland Ykkösliiga) — Home AH -1.0 Haka @ 1.69 — won
2. Värnamo 0-0 Brage (Sweden Superettan) — Away AH +1.25 Brage @ 1.32 — won
3. Tristán Suárez 1-0 Chacarita Juniors (Argentina Primera Nacional) — Home AH +0.5 Tristán Suárez @ 1.22 — won
4. Atlas 0-1 Deportivo Español (Argentina Primera C) — Home DC 1X Atlas @ 1.44 — lost
5. Iguatu 1-1 Nacional-AM (Brazil Serie D) — Home AH +0.25 Iguatu, split DNB 1.75 and DC 1X 1.43 — half won
6. Santos 2-2 Chapecoense (Brazil Serie A) — Home AH -1.0 Santos @ 1.66 — lost
7. Charlotte Independence 2-0 Richmond Kickers (USA USL League One) — Home AH -1.0 Charlotte @ 1.46 — won
8. Spokane Velocity 3-1 Fort Wayne (USA USL League One) — Away DC X2 Fort Wayne @ 1.93 — lost
9. Deportes Tolima 2-1 Junior (Colombia Primera A) — Away AH +1.25 Junior @ 1.29 — half won

Day close: -0.95u (6 paid of 9: 4 won, 2 half won, 3 lost).

DR