Steadbank

September finished 14.71 units down from 117 picks, minus 12.6 per cent. It is the worst month this system has had in a long time, and you deserve a proper account of it rather than a shrug. What went wrong. The new European seasons changed the market faster than the system adjusted. Teams had new squads and very little recent form, and the bookmakers priced those games tightly. Two things kept happening. Favourites on the minus one line won by a single goal, so the stake only came back. Seventeen stakes came back this month, most of them that way. And the bigger prices simply stopped landing. Bets at 2.00 or more lost 16.71 units from 54 picks. Everything below 2.00 was in profit. From the running high of 454.4 units on 26 August the total fell to 424.8 on 26 September, a drop of 29.6 units. That is the deepest fall in the system's history and I am not going to pretend otherwise. The low itself came two days into the new card, as the first couple of slips under the new rules ...

Four picks, two winners. Down 1.46. Celtic Women beat Spartans 4-0 and Cavalier drew 1-1 at Mount Pleasant, which was all the plus one and a quarter needed. Rangers Women only won 1-0 at Partick, a goal short on the minus one and a half, and Seekirchen lost 2-0 to Straßwalchen. Celtic W 4-0 Spartans W (Scotland Women's Premier League): Celtic W -1.50 @ 1.21, won Seekirchen II 0-2 Straßwalchen (Austria Salzburger Liga): Seekirchen II +0.50 @ 1.88, lost Partick Thistle W 0-1 Rangers W (Scotland Women's Premier League): Rangers W -1.50 @ 1.48, lost Mount Pleasant 1-1 Cavalier (Jamaica Premier League): Cavalier +1.25 @ 1.36, won Day close: -1.46u (2 won, 2 lost, from 4).

Three picks from the Czech lower leagues and all three won. Up 3.81 units, the best day since the new card started. Havířov were 2-0 up at Uherský Brod and were pegged back to 2-2 by a late penalty, which on the plus half is still a win at 2.50. Třebíč beat Bohunice 1-0 at 2.40, and Bystrc beat Pelhřimov 2-1 for both halves of the plus quarter. Uhersky Brod 2-2 Havirov (Czech Republic MSFL): Havirov +0.50 @ 2.50, won FS Trebic 1-0 Tatran Bohunice (Czech Republic 4 Liga Group D): FS Trebic +0.50 @ 2.40, won Bystrc Kninicky 2-1 Pelhrimov (Czech Republic 4 Liga Group D): Bystrc Kninicky +0.25 @ 1.91, won Day close: +3.81u (3 won, from 3).

Two picks, one winner and one refund. Up 0.49. Leverkusen Women were 2-0 down at half time to Werder Bremen and came back to win 3-2. A one goal win on the minus one, so the stake came back, which given the first half felt like a result. Baglan won 2-1 at Llanelli, so both halves of the plus quarter won. Bayer Leverkusen Women 3-2 Werder Bremen Women (Germany Frauen Bundesliga): Leverkusen Women -1.00 @ 2.22, stake back Llanelli Town 1-2 Baglan Dragons (Wales Cymru South): Baglan Dragons +0.25 @ 1.49, won Day close: +0.49u (1 won, 1 stake back, from 2).

One pick. Firpo won 3-0 away at Fuerte San Francisco and the Draw No Bet at 1.25 came in. Up 0.25. Fuerte San Francisco 0-3 Firpo (El Salvador Primera): Firpo Draw No Bet @ 1.25, won Day close: +0.25u (1 won, from 1).

Two picks, two winners. Up 1.10. Kreuzlingen beat Brühl on the plus quarter at 1.89. Whyteleafe lost 2-1 to Brentwood, but with a goal and a half start that is still a win. Kreuzlingen 1-0 Brühl (Switzerland Promotion League): Kreuzlingen +0.25 @ 1.89, won AFC Whyteleafe 1-2 Brentwood Town (Isthmian Premier): Whyteleafe +1.50 @ 1.25, won Day close: +1.10u (2 won, from 2).