Steadbank

Two picks and both paid. Up 1.50. Cacahuatique won 2-0 away at Atlético Balboa on the Draw No Bet at 2.37. Voždovac drew 0-0 with Napredak, so the Draw No Bet leg came back and the double chance leg won, a half win overall. Voždovac 0-0 Napredak (Serbia Prva Liga): Voždovac +0.25 @ 1.565, half won Atletico Balboa 0-2 Cacahuatique (El Salvador Primera): Cacahuatique Draw No Bet @ 2.37, won Day close: +1.50u (1 won, 1 half won, from 2).

One pick on Monday. Loznica beat Spartak Subotica 2-0 on the plus half at 1.53. Up 0.50. Loznica 2-0 Spartak Subotica (Serbia Prva Liga): Loznica +0.50 @ 1.53, won Day close: +0.50u (1 won, from 1).

Three picks, one winner. Down 0.89. Juárez Women won 5-1 against Tijuana at 2.17 on the minus one and a half, which more than covered one of the two losers. Ringsted lost 2-1 to Næsby and Slough lost 2-0 at home to Hemel. Ringsted 1-2 Næsby (Denmark 3. division): Ringsted +0.50 @ 2.40, lost Slough Town 0-2 Hemel Hempstead Town (National League South): Slough Town Draw No Bet @ 2.75, lost Juárez W 5-1 Tijuana Women (Liga MX Femenil): Juárez Women -1.50 @ 2.17, won Day close: -0.89u (1 won, 2 lost, from 3).

Three picks, one winner. Down 1.68. Ząbkovia lost a wild game 4-3 at home to Mława, and Aalesund's second team were beaten 7-1 by Rosenborg's. Neither was ever close. Bucaramanga won 3-1 at Once Caldas overnight on the plus one and a quarter, the one that paid. Ząbkovia Ząbki 3-4 Mławianka Mława (Poland III Liga): Zabkovia Zabki -1.00 @ 2.03, lost Aalesund II 1-7 Rosenborg II (Norway 3. divisjon): Aalesund II +0.50 @ 2.10, lost Once Caldas 1-3 Atlético Bucaramanga (Colombia Primera A): Atletico Bucaramanga +1.25 @ 1.34, won Day close: -1.68u (1 won, 2 lost, from 3).

The first card from the new setup, and a single pick. Deportivo Riestra's reserves beat Barracas Central's 3-0, and the Draw No Bet at 1.42 came in. Up 0.40. One pick will be normal on some weekdays now. The system only sends what clears the bar, and some days very little does. Deportivo Riestra Reserves 3-0 Barracas Central Reserves (Argentina Reserve League): Deportivo Riestra Reserves Draw No Bet @ 1.42, won Day close: +0.40u (1 won, from 1).

You will have noticed there were no cards on Monday or Tuesday. After Sunday's results I stopped sending and went through everything. This is what came out of it. The market has changed under us. Since late August most of Europe has started new seasons. Teams have new players, new managers and, early on, very little recent form to judge them by. Bookmakers price those games tightly, and the favourites we were backing kept winning by one goal when we needed two. The bigger prices suffered most. In September, bets priced at 2.00 or more lost heavily while the shorter ones made a small profit. So here is what is different from today. There is now one card instead of two separate selection lanes feeding into it. Both sets of systems are scored together, and only the strongest few make it. Volume is down on purpose. Monday to Thursday has a limit of two picks, Friday three and the weekend three. Only one bet per match. Leagues coming back from a break are handled differently....

Sunday was the low point of the month. Nine picks, one winner, and 5.02 units down. Six of the nine were priced at 2.36 or more, and five of those six lost. Beşiktaş were beaten 3-2 at Amed, Eastern lost 1-0, Sigma Olomouc were beaten 3-0 by Sparta and Lecce lost 3-0 at San Siro. Napoli drew 1-1 in Florence for the only win, and Horsens drew 2-2 with AGF for half. This is the day I stopped sending cards and took the whole selection process apart. I will explain what came out of that in an update later this week. Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli (Serie A): Napoli +0.75 @ 1.28, won Rangers 1-0 Eastern (Hong Kong Premier League): Eastern -1.00 @ 2.38, lost Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha (Czech First League): Sigma Olomouc Draw No Bet @ 2.50, lost Horsens 2-2 AGF (Danish Superliga): Horsens +0.25 @ 2.50, half won Pors Grenland 2-0 Lysekloster (Norway 2. divisjon): Lysekloster +0.25 @ 2.925, lost Trans 1-1 Tallinna FC Levadia (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tallinna FC Levadia -1.00 @ 1.33, lost...

Eight picks and a decent Saturday. Up 1.81. Luzern beat Grasshopper 5-1 at 2.10 and Slovan Liberec Women won 5-1 at 1.95. Three stakes came back. Accrington drew 0-0 on the Draw No Bet, and Linfield and Charleroi both won by one. Swindon lost 1-0 at Salford and still paid half on the plus one and a quarter. Sion drew 1-1 with Zürich, the one loss. Boeung Ket 1-2 Visakha (Cambodian League): Visakha +0.25 @ 1.46, won Slovan Liberec W 5-1 Viktoria Plzeň W (Czech Women's League): Slovan Liberec W -1.50 @ 1.95, won Accrington Stanley 0-0 Newport County (League Two): Accrington Stanley Draw No Bet @ 1.57, stake back Linfield 1-0 Crusaders (NIFL Premiership): Linfield -1.00 @ 1.35, stake back Salford City 1-0 Swindon Town (League Two): Swindon Town +1.25 @ 1.80, half won Luzern 5-1 Grasshopper (Swiss Super League): Luzern -1.00 @ 2.10, won Sion 1-1 Zürich (Swiss Super League): Sion -1.00 @ 1.73, lost Sporting Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge (Belgian Pro League): Sporting Charl...

Six picks, one winner. Down 2.89. Neftçi won 3-0 at Qabala at 1.92, and Harju drew 0-0 for a half win. MO Béjaïa drew 0-0, Paphos lost at home to AEL, Derby's under 21s were beaten 4-1 at Burnley and Finn Harps lost 1-0. Too many of this month's prices are sitting above two and they are not landing. Qabala 0-3 Neftçi (Azerbaijan Premier League): Neftçi -1.00 @ 1.92, won MO Béjaïa 0-0 MO Constantine (Algeria Ligue 2): MO Béjaïa -1.00 @ 2.17, lost Harju Jalgpallikool 0-0 Kuressaare (Estonia Meistriliiga): Harju Jalgpallikool +0.25 @ 1.49, half won Paphos 0-2 AEL (Cyprus First Division): Paphos -1.00 @ 1.73, lost Burnley U21 4-1 Derby County U21 (Premier League 2): Derby County U21 +0.25 @ 1.96, lost Finn Harps 0-1 Longford Town (League of Ireland First Division): Finn Harps +0.25 @ 2.36, lost Day close: -2.89u (1 won, 1 half won, 4 lost, from 6).

Four picks. Two refunds, one winner and one loss. Down 0.40. Ashdod won 3-2 and Real Betis 1-0, two more one goal wins on minus one lines. Orlando Pirates won 2-0, and Málaga lost 3-1 to Villarreal. Ashdod 3-2 Hapoel Rishon LeZion (Liga Leumit): Ashdod -1.00 @ 2.32, stake back Real Betis 1-0 Getafe CF (LaLiga): Real Betis -1.00 @ 2.17, stake back Orlando Pirates 2-0 Durban City (South Africa PSL): Orlando Pirates -1.00 @ 1.60, won Málaga CF 1-3 Villarreal (LaLiga): Málaga CF +0.50 @ 2, lost Day close: -0.40u (1 won, 2 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Four picks, two winners and one refund. Up 0.44. Paide beat Vaprus 2-0 and Hässleholm won 2-0 on the Draw No Bet. Auda won 1-0, stake back. La Equidad lost 3-2 to Atlético Nacional at 2.61. Auda 1-0 Ogre United (Latvian Virsliga): Auda -1.00 @ 1.46, stake back Paide 2-0 Vaprus (Estonia Meistriliiga): Paide -1.00 @ 1.70, won Hässleholms IF 2-0 Ariana (Ettan Södra): Hässleholms IF Draw No Bet @ 1.78, won La Equidad 2-3 Atlético Nacional (Colombia Primera A): La Equidad +0.25 @ 2.61, lost Day close: +0.44u (2 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Four picks, two winners. Up 0.92. Roma won 2-0 in Turin at 1.98, and Torque beat Liverpool of Montevideo 3-1 at 2.04. Bodø/Glimt only beat Sandefjord 3-2, so that one came back. Dundalk were well beaten, 4-0 at home to St Patrick's. Torino 0-2 Roma (Serie A): Roma -1.00 @ 1.98, won FK Bodo - Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord (Eliteserien): FK Bodo - Glimt -1.00 @ 1.22, stake back Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athl. (League of Ireland Premier): Dundalk +0.50 @ 1.80, lost Torque 3-1 Liverpool FC Montevideo (Uruguay Primera): Torque +0.25 @ 2.04, won Day close: +0.92u (2 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Two slips and twelve picks on Sunday. Five won, two half won and five lost. Down 0.96. ASA Aarhus won 1-0 at 2.40, and Benfica, Selangor, Kjelsås and Nordsjælland all won comfortably. Rudeš lost 3-2 in Istra and still returned half the stake on the plus one and a quarter. Molinos El Pirata drew 0-0 for a half win at 3.13. Both Mexican women's picks lost. Tigres were beaten 5-2 by América and San Luis 3-2 by Santos Laguna. ASA Aarhus 1-0 Næsby (Denmark 3. division): ASA Aarhus +0.25 @ 2.40, won Rana 0-1 Lørenskog (Norway 2. divisjon): Rana -0.50 @ 2, lost Selangor 3-0 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia Super League): Selangor -1.00 @ 1.42, won Kjelsås 5-0 Stjørdals-Blink (Norway 2. divisjon): Kjelsås -1.00 @ 1.52, won Arendal 2-0 Kvik Halden (Norway 2. divisjon): Kvik Halden +0.25 @ 1.935, lost Istra 1961 3-2 Rudeš (Croatian HNL): Rudeš +1.25 @ 1.83, half won Nordsjælland 2-0 AGF (Danish Superliga): Nordsjælland Draw No Bet @ 1.42, won Benfica 3-1 Gil Vicente (Primeira Liga): Be...

Nine picks, four winners and five losses. Down 4.06. The short prices won, the long ones lost, and that is becoming a pattern. Al Hilal won 6-0, Levadia 4-0 and Levanger 5-2, and Sheffield Wednesday drew 0-0 on the plus half. All four were priced between 1.21 and 1.33. Every loss was 1.77 or bigger. Kuching won at Melaka, but by one and not the two they needed. Thun lost at home to Grasshopper at 2.43, Cambodia Tiger drew 2-2 at 3.10, and Perth and JDFS Alberts were both beaten. Bayswater City 2-0 Perth (WA NPL): Perth +0.25 @ 2.055, lost Levanger 5-2 Follo (Norway 2. divisjon): Levanger -1.00 @ 1.24, won Cambodia Tiger 2-2 Phnom Penh Crown (Cambodian League): Cambodia Tiger -0.50 @ 3.10, lost Tallinna FC Levadia 4-0 Vaprus (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tallinna FC Levadia -1.00 @ 1.21, won Melaka 1-2 Kuching FA (Malaysia Super League): Kuching FA -1.50 @ 1.77, lost JDFS Alberts 1-2 Valmiera / BSS (Latvia 1. līga): JDFS Alberts Draw No Bet @ 2.25, lost Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Wi...

Seven picks and five winners. Up 0.38, which is less than five from seven usually brings, because the two losers were the two long prices. Casuarina lost a 5-4 game nobody saw coming, and Kerry lost 1-0 on the Draw No Bet at 2.18. Al Thaid won 2-0 at 2.02. KTP, Eidsvold and Al Ahli all won by two or more to clear their minus ones, and Dender won 1-0 at Gent's second team. Casuarina 4-5 Port Darwin (NT Premier League): Casuarina +0.50 @ 2.20, lost Al Thaid 2-0 Dibba Al Fujairah (UAE Division One): Al Thaid +0.25 @ 2.02, won KTP 3-0 JäPS (Finland Ykkösliiga): KTP -1.00 @ 1.58, won Eidsvold 3-1 Ullensaker / Kisa II (Norway 2. divisjon): Eidsvold -1.00 @ 1.22, won Al Ahli 3-1 Al Hazm (Saudi Pro League): Al Ahli -1.00 @ 1.39, won KAA Gent II 0-1 FCV Dender EH (Challenger Pro League): FCV Dender EH +0.50 @ 1.30, won Kerry 0-1 Bray Wanderers (League of Ireland First Division): Kerry Draw No Bet @ 2.18, lost Day close: +0.38u (5 won, 2 lost, from 7).

Three picks and level to the penny, down 0.01. Viimsi made up for last week with a 5-0 win over Elva at 2.04. Tartu Kalev won by one for a refund. Aurora lost 2-1 to Municipal on a plus quarter. Legion 1-2 Tartu Kalev (Estonia Esiliiga B): Tartu Kalev -1.00 @ 1.65, stake back Viimsi 5-0 Elva (Estonia Esiliiga): Viimsi -1.00 @ 2.04, won Aurora 1-2 Municipal (Guatemala Liga Nacional): Aurora +0.25 @ 2.09, lost Day close: -0.01u (1 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 3).

The first card after the changes I wrote about this morning, and three picks. Sundowns beat Siwelele 3-0. Al Nassr won 2-1, one goal again, so that stake came back. Tammeka lost 2-0 at home to Paide. Down 0.43. Tammeka 0-2 Paide (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tammeka +0.25 @ 2.40, lost Mamelodi Sundowns 3-0 Siwelele (South Africa PSL): Mamelodi Sundowns -1.00 @ 1.57, won Al Nassr 2-1 Abha (Saudi Pro League): Al-Nassr -1.00 @ 1.25, stake back Day close: -0.43u (1 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 3).

This one is worth reading because you will see the difference straight away. Over the last fortnight we tested a set of stricter rules for which systems are allowed onto the card. Each rule was checked against a version of itself with the real information swapped for random noise of the same size. A rule only went live if the real version clearly beat the random one. It sounds fussy, but it is the only way to know a change is real and not just luck in the numbers. Four things changed. Only a short list of the most reliable form filters can now fire a bet. Systems that hardly ever produce a selection are dropped, because a handful of lucky results is not a record. Systems are now ranked on how their particular handicap line and filter have done, not just their overall numbers. And deeper handicap lines, three quarters of a goal and more, get a small lift in the ranking. The effect is big. The pool of systems allowed to bet has gone from around two and a half thousand to around th...

Ten picks and close to level. Four won, one half won, one refund and four losses. Down 0.20. Augsburg won 4-1 in Frankfurt at 2.26 and Horsens won 5-2 at Sønderjyske. Both were away sides on a plus quarter and both won outright. Hearts Women won 7-0 at Montrose. Hearts won 2-1 against Dundee, another one goal win and another refund. Inter Santa Tecla had their keeper sent off after fourteen minutes at Firpo and lost 3-0. Haka lost at home to MP and Municipal drew 0-0. Citizen AA 2-1 South China (Hong Kong First Division): South China -1.00 @ 1.53, lost Grorud 4-2 Rana (Norway 2. divisjon): Grorud -1.00 @ 1.75, won Montrose W 0-7 Hearts W (SWPL): Hearts W -1.50 @ 1.30, won SønderjyskE 2-5 Horsens (Danish Superliga): Horsens +0.25 @ 2.025, won Hearts 2-1 Dundee (Scottish Premiership): Hearts -1.00 @ 1.80, stake back Lørenskog 1-1 Junkeren (Norway 2. divisjon): Junkeren +0.25 @ 2.525, half won Haka 0-2 MP (Finland Ykkösliiga): Haka -1.00 @ 1.44, lost Eintracht Frankfurt 1-...

Two slips on Saturday and a proper bounce back. Ten picks, five winners, two refunds and three losses. Up 2.40. Three prices did the heavy lifting. Silkeborg drew 2-2 at AGF on the plus half at 2.78, Kuching won 2-0 at Sabah at 2.24 and Dumbarton beat Elgin 2-1 at 2.48. AEK put five past Aris. Gloria Bistrita and Skiljebo both won by one away from home, so those two came back. Universitario drew 2-2 at home on a minus one, and Bohemians and Stirling Albion both lost. Stefanesti 1-2 ACS Gloria Bistrita (Romania Liga II): Gloria Bistrita -1.00 @ 2.70, stake back Sparta Brno 1-0 Humpolec (Czech 4. liga D): Sparta Brno +0.25 @ 1.44, won Sabah 0-2 Kuching FA (Malaysia Super League): Kuching City -1.00 @ 2.24, won Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905 (Czech First League): Bohemians +0.50 @ 2.20, lost Lidingö 1-2 Skiljebo (Sweden Division 2): Skiljebo -1.00 @ 1.95, stake back Dumbarton 2-1 Elgin City (Scottish League Two): Dumbarton +0.25 @ 2.48, won Stirling Albion 0-2 Spartans (...

Friday was the worst day of the run. Eight picks, no winners, three stakes back and five losses. Down 5.00 units. Look at how the minus ones finished. Galatasaray won 3-2. Porto won 2-1. Noah won 3-2. Three favourites won their games and not one of them won by two. Connah's Quay could only draw. Loudoun lost a 5-4 game at home on the Draw No Bet, and the two long prices from Kuwait and Tasmania were beaten 3-0 and 5-1. I want to be straight about this. A run of one goal wins on minus one lines is not just bad luck that evens itself out by next week. It tells us something about how tight these early season games are, and I will write about it properly at the end of the month. Al Qadisiya 3-0 Al Naser (Kuwait Premier League): Al Naser +0.25 @ 2.95, lost Artsakh 3-2 Gandzasar (Armenian Premier League): Noah -1.50 @ 1.33, lost İstanbul Başakşehir 2-3 Galatasaray (Turkish Super Lig): Galatasaray -1.00 @ 2.09, stake back Cobh Ramblers 1-1 UCD (League of Ireland First Divisio...

Five picks, one winner. Down 2.38. Alashkert hammered Van 4-0 and cleared the minus one and a half with room to spare. After that it was hard going. Viimsi lost at home to FC Tallinn on a minus one, Al Ahly beat Smouha by a single goal for a refund, and the two big prices, Hafnir at 3.00 and Pereira at 2.72, both lost clearly. Alashkert 4-0 Van (Armenian Premier League): Alashkert -1.50 @ 1.62, won Viimsi 1-2 FC Tallinn (Estonia Esiliiga): Viimsi -1.00 @ 1.38, lost Al Ahly 1-0 Smouha SC (Egyptian Premier League): Al Ahly -1.00 @ 1.64, stake back Hafnir 1-3 Vængir Júpiters (Iceland 4. deild): Hafnir +0.50 @ 3, lost Deportivo Pereira 0-3 Independiente Medellín (Colombia Primera A): Pereira +0.25 @ 2.72, lost Day close: -2.38u (1 won, 1 stake back, 3 lost, from 5).

August finished level, 0.53 units up from 145 picks. Not much movement at the end, but quite a lot happened along the way. The first half of the month was the end of the summer leagues. The second half brought the new seasons in Spain, Portugal, Scotland, Turkey, Greece and the rest, and the card changed with them. The average price went up from 1.50 in July to 1.72, and more of the picks moved onto the minus one line. The bigger prices carried the month. Bets at 2.00 or more made 8.43 units from 36 picks. Everything shorter lost. Keflavík on the minus one at 3.09 was the biggest winner and Sunday the 23rd, ten picks with eight outright winners, was the best day at plus 5.16. The end of the month was harder. The last week cost about ten units, and a lot of it came the same way. Favourites on the minus one line kept winning by exactly one goal, which gives the stake back, or drawing, which loses it. Early in a new season the gaps between teams are smaller than the tables suggest,...

Three picks. Two minus ones won comfortably, Borac 2-0 and Celtic 3-0 over Aberdeen. Kilmarnock lost 1-0 at home to St Mirren on a plus quarter, and that one loss at 1.93 cost more than the two short winners made. Down 0.23. Borac Banja Luka 2-0 Željezničar (Bosnian Premier League): Borac -1.00 @ 1.46, won Celtic 3-0 Aberdeen (Scottish Premiership): Celtic -1.00 @ 1.35, won Kilmarnock 0-1 St. Mirren (Scottish Premiership): Kilmarnock +0.25 @ 1.93, lost Day close: -0.23u (2 won, 1 lost, from 3).

Four picks to close August, one winner. Down 1.80. Qarabağ won 1-0 at Sumqayıt, one goal, stake back. Riga went the other way and were beaten 3-2 at Liepāja on a minus one. Fortaleza drew 1-1 and that was enough on the plus half. Al Masry lost by a single goal to Pyramids. Liepāja 3-2 Riga (Latvian Virsliga): Riga -1.00 @ 1.66, lost Sumqayıt 0-1 Qarabağ (Azerbaijan Premier League): Qarabağ -1.00 @ 1.55, stake back Al Masry 0-1 Pyramids FC (Egyptian Premier League): Al Masry +0.25 @ 2.425, lost Fortaleza 1-1 Operário PR (Brazil Serie B): Fortaleza +0.50 @ 1.21, won Day close: -1.80u (1 won, 1 stake back, 2 lost, from 4).