Steadbank

September finished 14.71 units down from 117 picks, minus 12.6 per cent. It is the worst month this system has had in a long time, and you deserve a proper account of it rather than a shrug. What went wrong. The new European seasons changed the market faster than the system adjusted. Teams had new squads and very little recent form, and the bookmakers priced those games tightly. Two things kept happening. Favourites on the minus one line won by a single goal, so the stake only came back. Seventeen stakes came back this month, most of them that way. And the bigger prices simply stopped landing. Bets at 2.00 or more lost 16.71 units from 54 picks. Everything below 2.00 was in profit. From the running high of 454.4 units on 26 August the total fell to 424.8 on 26 September, a drop of 29.6 units. That is the deepest fall in the system's history and I am not going to pretend otherwise. The low itself came two days into the new card, as the first couple of slips under the new rules ...

Four picks, two winners. Down 1.46. Celtic Women beat Spartans 4-0 and Cavalier drew 1-1 at Mount Pleasant, which was all the plus one and a quarter needed. Rangers Women only won 1-0 at Partick, a goal short on the minus one and a half, and Seekirchen lost 2-0 to Straßwalchen. Celtic W 4-0 Spartans W (Scotland Women's Premier League): Celtic W -1.50 @ 1.21, won Seekirchen II 0-2 Straßwalchen (Austria Salzburger Liga): Seekirchen II +0.50 @ 1.88, lost Partick Thistle W 0-1 Rangers W (Scotland Women's Premier League): Rangers W -1.50 @ 1.48, lost Mount Pleasant 1-1 Cavalier (Jamaica Premier League): Cavalier +1.25 @ 1.36, won Day close: -1.46u (2 won, 2 lost, from 4).

Three picks from the Czech lower leagues and all three won. Up 3.81 units, the best day since the new card started. Havířov were 2-0 up at Uherský Brod and were pegged back to 2-2 by a late penalty, which on the plus half is still a win at 2.50. Třebíč beat Bohunice 1-0 at 2.40, and Bystrc beat Pelhřimov 2-1 for both halves of the plus quarter. Uhersky Brod 2-2 Havirov (Czech Republic MSFL): Havirov +0.50 @ 2.50, won FS Trebic 1-0 Tatran Bohunice (Czech Republic 4 Liga Group D): FS Trebic +0.50 @ 2.40, won Bystrc Kninicky 2-1 Pelhrimov (Czech Republic 4 Liga Group D): Bystrc Kninicky +0.25 @ 1.91, won Day close: +3.81u (3 won, from 3).

Two picks, one winner and one refund. Up 0.49. Leverkusen Women were 2-0 down at half time to Werder Bremen and came back to win 3-2. A one goal win on the minus one, so the stake came back, which given the first half felt like a result. Baglan won 2-1 at Llanelli, so both halves of the plus quarter won. Bayer Leverkusen Women 3-2 Werder Bremen Women (Germany Frauen Bundesliga): Leverkusen Women -1.00 @ 2.22, stake back Llanelli Town 1-2 Baglan Dragons (Wales Cymru South): Baglan Dragons +0.25 @ 1.49, won Day close: +0.49u (1 won, 1 stake back, from 2).

One pick. Firpo won 3-0 away at Fuerte San Francisco and the Draw No Bet at 1.25 came in. Up 0.25. Fuerte San Francisco 0-3 Firpo (El Salvador Primera): Firpo Draw No Bet @ 1.25, won Day close: +0.25u (1 won, from 1).

Two picks, two winners. Up 1.10. Kreuzlingen beat Brühl on the plus quarter at 1.89. Whyteleafe lost 2-1 to Brentwood, but with a goal and a half start that is still a win. Kreuzlingen 1-0 Brühl (Switzerland Promotion League): Kreuzlingen +0.25 @ 1.89, won AFC Whyteleafe 1-2 Brentwood Town (Isthmian Premier): Whyteleafe +1.50 @ 1.25, won Day close: +1.10u (2 won, from 2).

Two picks and both paid. Up 1.50. Cacahuatique won 2-0 away at Atlético Balboa on the Draw No Bet at 2.37. Voždovac drew 0-0 with Napredak, so the Draw No Bet leg came back and the double chance leg won, a half win overall. Voždovac 0-0 Napredak (Serbia Prva Liga): Voždovac +0.25 @ 1.565, half won Atletico Balboa 0-2 Cacahuatique (El Salvador Primera): Cacahuatique Draw No Bet @ 2.37, won Day close: +1.50u (1 won, 1 half won, from 2).

One pick on Monday. Loznica beat Spartak Subotica 2-0 on the plus half at 1.53. Up 0.50. Loznica 2-0 Spartak Subotica (Serbia Prva Liga): Loznica +0.50 @ 1.53, won Day close: +0.50u (1 won, from 1).

Three picks, one winner. Down 0.89. Juárez Women won 5-1 against Tijuana at 2.17 on the minus one and a half, which more than covered one of the two losers. Ringsted lost 2-1 to Næsby and Slough lost 2-0 at home to Hemel. Ringsted 1-2 Næsby (Denmark 3. division): Ringsted +0.50 @ 2.40, lost Slough Town 0-2 Hemel Hempstead Town (National League South): Slough Town Draw No Bet @ 2.75, lost Juárez W 5-1 Tijuana Women (Liga MX Femenil): Juárez Women -1.50 @ 2.17, won Day close: -0.89u (1 won, 2 lost, from 3).

Three picks, one winner. Down 1.68. Ząbkovia lost a wild game 4-3 at home to Mława, and Aalesund's second team were beaten 7-1 by Rosenborg's. Neither was ever close. Bucaramanga won 3-1 at Once Caldas overnight on the plus one and a quarter, the one that paid. Ząbkovia Ząbki 3-4 Mławianka Mława (Poland III Liga): Zabkovia Zabki -1.00 @ 2.03, lost Aalesund II 1-7 Rosenborg II (Norway 3. divisjon): Aalesund II +0.50 @ 2.10, lost Once Caldas 1-3 Atlético Bucaramanga (Colombia Primera A): Atletico Bucaramanga +1.25 @ 1.34, won Day close: -1.68u (1 won, 2 lost, from 3).

The first card from the new setup, and a single pick. Deportivo Riestra's reserves beat Barracas Central's 3-0, and the Draw No Bet at 1.42 came in. Up 0.40. One pick will be normal on some weekdays now. The system only sends what clears the bar, and some days very little does. Deportivo Riestra Reserves 3-0 Barracas Central Reserves (Argentina Reserve League): Deportivo Riestra Reserves Draw No Bet @ 1.42, won Day close: +0.40u (1 won, from 1).

You will have noticed there were no cards on Monday or Tuesday. After Sunday's results I stopped sending and went through everything. This is what came out of it. The market has changed under us. Since late August most of Europe has started new seasons. Teams have new players, new managers and, early on, very little recent form to judge them by. Bookmakers price those games tightly, and the favourites we were backing kept winning by one goal when we needed two. The bigger prices suffered most. In September, bets priced at 2.00 or more lost heavily while the shorter ones made a small profit. So here is what is different from today. There is now one card instead of two separate selection lanes feeding into it. Both sets of systems are scored together, and only the strongest few make it. Volume is down on purpose. Monday to Thursday has a limit of two picks, Friday three and the weekend three. Only one bet per match. Leagues coming back from a break are handled differently....

Sunday was the low point of the month. Nine picks, one winner, and 5.02 units down. Six of the nine were priced at 2.36 or more, and five of those six lost. Beşiktaş were beaten 3-2 at Amed, Eastern lost 1-0, Sigma Olomouc were beaten 3-0 by Sparta and Lecce lost 3-0 at San Siro. Napoli drew 1-1 in Florence for the only win, and Horsens drew 2-2 with AGF for half. This is the day I stopped sending cards and took the whole selection process apart. I will explain what came out of that in an update later this week. Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli (Serie A): Napoli +0.75 @ 1.28, won Rangers 1-0 Eastern (Hong Kong Premier League): Eastern -1.00 @ 2.38, lost Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Sparta Praha (Czech First League): Sigma Olomouc Draw No Bet @ 2.50, lost Horsens 2-2 AGF (Danish Superliga): Horsens +0.25 @ 2.50, half won Pors Grenland 2-0 Lysekloster (Norway 2. divisjon): Lysekloster +0.25 @ 2.925, lost Trans 1-1 Tallinna FC Levadia (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tallinna FC Levadia -1.00 @ 1.33, lost...

Eight picks and a decent Saturday. Up 1.81. Luzern beat Grasshopper 5-1 at 2.10 and Slovan Liberec Women won 5-1 at 1.95. Three stakes came back. Accrington drew 0-0 on the Draw No Bet, and Linfield and Charleroi both won by one. Swindon lost 1-0 at Salford and still paid half on the plus one and a quarter. Sion drew 1-1 with Zürich, the one loss. Boeung Ket 1-2 Visakha (Cambodian League): Visakha +0.25 @ 1.46, won Slovan Liberec W 5-1 Viktoria Plzeň W (Czech Women's League): Slovan Liberec W -1.50 @ 1.95, won Accrington Stanley 0-0 Newport County (League Two): Accrington Stanley Draw No Bet @ 1.57, stake back Linfield 1-0 Crusaders (NIFL Premiership): Linfield -1.00 @ 1.35, stake back Salford City 1-0 Swindon Town (League Two): Swindon Town +1.25 @ 1.80, half won Luzern 5-1 Grasshopper (Swiss Super League): Luzern -1.00 @ 2.10, won Sion 1-1 Zürich (Swiss Super League): Sion -1.00 @ 1.73, lost Sporting Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge (Belgian Pro League): Sporting Charl...

Six picks, one winner. Down 2.89. Neftçi won 3-0 at Qabala at 1.92, and Harju drew 0-0 for a half win. MO Béjaïa drew 0-0, Paphos lost at home to AEL, Derby's under 21s were beaten 4-1 at Burnley and Finn Harps lost 1-0. Too many of this month's prices are sitting above two and they are not landing. Qabala 0-3 Neftçi (Azerbaijan Premier League): Neftçi -1.00 @ 1.92, won MO Béjaïa 0-0 MO Constantine (Algeria Ligue 2): MO Béjaïa -1.00 @ 2.17, lost Harju Jalgpallikool 0-0 Kuressaare (Estonia Meistriliiga): Harju Jalgpallikool +0.25 @ 1.49, half won Paphos 0-2 AEL (Cyprus First Division): Paphos -1.00 @ 1.73, lost Burnley U21 4-1 Derby County U21 (Premier League 2): Derby County U21 +0.25 @ 1.96, lost Finn Harps 0-1 Longford Town (League of Ireland First Division): Finn Harps +0.25 @ 2.36, lost Day close: -2.89u (1 won, 1 half won, 4 lost, from 6).

Four picks. Two refunds, one winner and one loss. Down 0.40. Ashdod won 3-2 and Real Betis 1-0, two more one goal wins on minus one lines. Orlando Pirates won 2-0, and Málaga lost 3-1 to Villarreal. Ashdod 3-2 Hapoel Rishon LeZion (Liga Leumit): Ashdod -1.00 @ 2.32, stake back Real Betis 1-0 Getafe CF (LaLiga): Real Betis -1.00 @ 2.17, stake back Orlando Pirates 2-0 Durban City (South Africa PSL): Orlando Pirates -1.00 @ 1.60, won Málaga CF 1-3 Villarreal (LaLiga): Málaga CF +0.50 @ 2, lost Day close: -0.40u (1 won, 2 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Four picks, two winners and one refund. Up 0.44. Paide beat Vaprus 2-0 and Hässleholm won 2-0 on the Draw No Bet. Auda won 1-0, stake back. La Equidad lost 3-2 to Atlético Nacional at 2.61. Auda 1-0 Ogre United (Latvian Virsliga): Auda -1.00 @ 1.46, stake back Paide 2-0 Vaprus (Estonia Meistriliiga): Paide -1.00 @ 1.70, won Hässleholms IF 2-0 Ariana (Ettan Södra): Hässleholms IF Draw No Bet @ 1.78, won La Equidad 2-3 Atlético Nacional (Colombia Primera A): La Equidad +0.25 @ 2.61, lost Day close: +0.44u (2 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Four picks, two winners. Up 0.92. Roma won 2-0 in Turin at 1.98, and Torque beat Liverpool of Montevideo 3-1 at 2.04. Bodø/Glimt only beat Sandefjord 3-2, so that one came back. Dundalk were well beaten, 4-0 at home to St Patrick's. Torino 0-2 Roma (Serie A): Roma -1.00 @ 1.98, won FK Bodo - Glimt 3-2 Sandefjord (Eliteserien): FK Bodo - Glimt -1.00 @ 1.22, stake back Dundalk 0-4 St Patrick's Athl. (League of Ireland Premier): Dundalk +0.50 @ 1.80, lost Torque 3-1 Liverpool FC Montevideo (Uruguay Primera): Torque +0.25 @ 2.04, won Day close: +0.92u (2 won, 1 stake back, 1 lost, from 4).

Two slips and twelve picks on Sunday. Five won, two half won and five lost. Down 0.96. ASA Aarhus won 1-0 at 2.40, and Benfica, Selangor, Kjelsås and Nordsjælland all won comfortably. Rudeš lost 3-2 in Istra and still returned half the stake on the plus one and a quarter. Molinos El Pirata drew 0-0 for a half win at 3.13. Both Mexican women's picks lost. Tigres were beaten 5-2 by América and San Luis 3-2 by Santos Laguna. ASA Aarhus 1-0 Næsby (Denmark 3. division): ASA Aarhus +0.25 @ 2.40, won Rana 0-1 Lørenskog (Norway 2. divisjon): Rana -0.50 @ 2, lost Selangor 3-0 Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia Super League): Selangor -1.00 @ 1.42, won Kjelsås 5-0 Stjørdals-Blink (Norway 2. divisjon): Kjelsås -1.00 @ 1.52, won Arendal 2-0 Kvik Halden (Norway 2. divisjon): Kvik Halden +0.25 @ 1.935, lost Istra 1961 3-2 Rudeš (Croatian HNL): Rudeš +1.25 @ 1.83, half won Nordsjælland 2-0 AGF (Danish Superliga): Nordsjælland Draw No Bet @ 1.42, won Benfica 3-1 Gil Vicente (Primeira Liga): Be...

Nine picks, four winners and five losses. Down 4.06. The short prices won, the long ones lost, and that is becoming a pattern. Al Hilal won 6-0, Levadia 4-0 and Levanger 5-2, and Sheffield Wednesday drew 0-0 on the plus half. All four were priced between 1.21 and 1.33. Every loss was 1.77 or bigger. Kuching won at Melaka, but by one and not the two they needed. Thun lost at home to Grasshopper at 2.43, Cambodia Tiger drew 2-2 at 3.10, and Perth and JDFS Alberts were both beaten. Bayswater City 2-0 Perth (WA NPL): Perth +0.25 @ 2.055, lost Levanger 5-2 Follo (Norway 2. divisjon): Levanger -1.00 @ 1.24, won Cambodia Tiger 2-2 Phnom Penh Crown (Cambodian League): Cambodia Tiger -0.50 @ 3.10, lost Tallinna FC Levadia 4-0 Vaprus (Estonia Meistriliiga): Tallinna FC Levadia -1.00 @ 1.21, won Melaka 1-2 Kuching FA (Malaysia Super League): Kuching FA -1.50 @ 1.77, lost JDFS Alberts 1-2 Valmiera / BSS (Latvia 1. līga): JDFS Alberts Draw No Bet @ 2.25, lost Sheffield Wednesday 0-0 Wi...