Picks for Wed 13 May 2026

A single-pick Wednesday and it didn't get there. Getafe ran out 3-1 winners over Mallorca at the Coliseum so the +1.25 cover at 1.21 BF Exchange went the full distance against — lost by two takes the quarter line out at both halves. The slate was thin by design: scanner produced four raw triggers, the real-price gate dropped Athletic Bilbao at sub-1.20 (queue would have filled at 1.16 which is below the post-commission floor we work to) and the two Tanzania bridgeable-line picks were gated for fixture-data mismatch and kickoff timing respectively. So Mallorca on its own carried the day and the cover didn't come. After yesterday's clean sweep this is the variance partner — same line, same filter, the result just didn't break our way this time. The trail-12 floor for the +1.25 away workhorse sits comfortably above 75% on the IS/OOS-validated pool, so the cooler patch since May 6 reads as normal regression rather than a system fault — observed 14-day SR over 47 settled bets came in at 74.5% which is right on the historic loose-SR floor.

1. Getafe CF v RCD Mallorca (Spain La Liga) — Away AH +1.25 RCD Mallorca @ 1.21 — lost (Getafe 3-1)

Day close: -1.00u (0 paid of 1). Running: +438.59u.

DR