Results for Sun 24 May 2026

10 picks across 8 fixtures. 2 outright wins, 2 half-wins, 6 losses. Day P&L −4.375u.

A heavy Sunday across the board. The Argentine Primera Nacional cluster, four picks on dog covers at AH +1.25, returned only two payers, and even those two were both fractional. Cerro overran Central Español 1-0 in Uruguay and both legs on the away cover lost. Zhejiang were dismantled 5-0 at home by Liaoning Tieren in the Chinese Super League, a result the model had flagged as the marginal one going in. The headline win came from Viktoria Plzeň Women, who travelled to FC Praha Women in the Czech relegation group and won 2-0, paying the slate's standout retail-edge price of 1.91 at Betfred. Cruzeiro held on to edge Chapecoense 2-1 at home, the one-goal margin landing exactly on the half-win zone of the -0.75 split-line. Atlético Atlanta dug out a 1-0 win at San Martín Tucumán to bank the Argentine away dog cover in full.

1. Cerro 1-0 Central Español (Uruguay Primera Intermedio) — AH +0.50 Central Español ≡ DC X2 @ 1.51 (Betfair Exchange) — LOST, −1.00u
2. Cerro 1-0 Central Español (Uruguay Primera Intermedio) — AH +0.25 Central Español blend (0.5u DNB @ 1.97 + 0.5u DC X2 @ 1.51) @ 1.74 eff — LOST, −1.00u
3. Cruzeiro 2-1 Chapecoense (Brazil Serie A) — AH -0.75 Cruzeiro @ 1.45 (Betfair Exchange split-line) — HALF WON, +0.225u
4. FC Praha W 0-2 Viktoria Plzeň W (Czech 1. Liga Women, Relegation Group) — AH -0.50 Plzeň W ≡ MW @ 1.91 (Betfred) — WON, +0.91u
5. OLS 1-2 Jazz (Finland Ykkönen) — AH -0.75 OLS @ 1.43 (Betfair Exchange split-line) — LOST, −1.00u
6. San Martín Tucumán 0-1 Atlético Atlanta (Argentina Primera Nacional) — AH +1.25 Atlético Atlanta @ 1.31 (bet365 AH split-line) — WON, +0.31u
7. Deportivo Morón 2-0 Estudiantes Caseros (Argentina Primera Nacional) — AH +1.25 Estudiantes Caseros @ 1.26 (bet365 AH split-line) — LOST, −1.00u
8. Técnico Universitario 2-1 Leones del Norte (Ecuador Liga Pro) — AH +1.25 Leones del Norte @ 1.36 (Betfair Exchange split-line) — HALF WON, +0.18u
9. Chaco For Ever 1-2 Deportivo Madryn (Argentina Primera Nacional) — AH +0.50 Chaco For Ever ≡ DC 1X @ 1.33 (Betfair Exchange) — LOST, −1.00u
10. Zhejiang Greentown 0-5 Liaoning Tieren (Chinese Super League) — AH +0.50 Zhejiang ≡ DC 1X @ 1.25 (Betfair Exchange) — LOST, −1.00u

Aside on the Argentine block. Four picks across four fixtures, all on the dog at AH +1.25, all from cells riding the "pick unbeaten" or "pick W3+ / opp L3+" filter signatures. The cells' long-run numbers (85.4%, 94.5%, etc.) are genuine, but a four-pick cluster can still go to a single bad afternoon, and today was that afternoon. Two won fractionally and two lost outright. Concentration risk worth flagging when the slate is naturally weighted towards one country and one line type.

Aside on Plzeň Women. The 2-0 away win at FC Praha was the textbook case for the retail-edge play. The model expected a roughly 1.60-1.65 fair price for the Match Winner; Betfred listed 1.91. Holding the bet at the wider retail number rather than dropping to Betfair's tighter exchange spread captured the extra 26-30 ticks of edge. On a quiet card those single-pick edges carry the day; on a heavy card like today they soften the impact.

Day close: −4.375u. Running: +439.795u.

DR