Results for Sat 27 June 2026

A strong Saturday on a ten pick slate (nine main and one bench), nine positive P&L picks and one loss settling for a net of plus 2.27u on 10u staked, return on investment plus 22.7 per cent on the day. The structure is doubly interesting because four of the nine winning picks banked positive P&L on non-winning match outcomes via the AH bridge split construction, exactly the design intent of running quarter line bets across two whole line legs. Two draws (Dodoma 0-0, Åtvidaberg 3-3) and two away losses by exactly one goal (América MG 0-1, Öster 1-2) all delivered positive returns through the bridge construction even though the underlying match did not deliver an outright win. The three pre-publish swaps on Pick 5 (Mashujaa to Okzhetpes to Operário) and the Pick 7 promotion of Byåsen for Criciúma all paid off cleanly.

The AFC Malmö SPICY at Pick 3 was the headline call of the day. The cell was AH home zero with the pick_W4 plus filter. William Hill printed the longest DNB at 1.80, eight other bookmakers clustered at 2.00 flat. AFC Malmö won 1-0 outright against Jönköpings Södra for plus 0.80u, the largest single P&L on the day and exactly the SPICY pricing the cell call was designed for.

The Lithuania 1 Lyga two pack at the top of the slate banked Picks 1 and 2 cleanly. Babrungas away minus 0.50 at FA Šiauliai II won 1-0 outright on the Match Winner take of 1.22 (BetMGM and BetUK FS retail). Tauras away minus 0.50 at TransINVEST won 1-0 outright on the Match Winner take of 1.32 (BetMGM and BetUK FS retail). The huge_favdog_gap filter delivered exactly the favourite outcome on both Lithuanian second tier away picks.

The Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara two pack at Picks 4 and 6 split. Pick 4 Dodoma Jiji v Mbeya City drew 0-0, which is the exact outcome the AH plus 0.25 split is designed to handle. The bridge runs half stake on Draw No Bet at the 10bet retail price of 3.65 plus half stake on Double Chance X1 (Dodoma or Draw) at the Skybet retail price of 2.50. On a draw the DNB leg refunds (half stake returned at zero P&L) and the DC X1 leg wins fully (half stake banks at 2.50). Net plus 0.75u on the 1u stake. Pick 6 Pamba Jiji v JKT Tanzania lost 1-0 for the only full loss of the day. Pamba is HOME on the AH plus 0.25 line with the opp_W0 filter (opponent JKT won zero of their last five); the filter signalled strong, but Pamba lost outright.

The three AH plus 1.25 picks on the slate (Picks 5, 9, and bench Öster) all delivered positive P&L through different mechanisms, with no full loss on any of them. Pick 5 América Mineiro away plus 1.25 at Operário PR, lost the match 0-1, which on the plus 1.25 split delivers a push on the plus 1.0 leg (adjusted score 1-1 refunds) plus a win on the plus 1.5 leg (adjusted 1.5-1 wins). Half stake refund plus half stake winning at the BetfairExchange take of 1.41 produces +0.195u after exchange commission. Pick 9 Santa Cruz away plus 1.25 at Paysandu in Brazil Serie C delivered the cleanest result, with Santa Cruz winning 3-1 outright for a full win on the BetfairExchange take of 1.42, plus 0.40u after commission. Bench Öster away plus 1.25 at Varberg in Sweden Superettan lost 1-2 by exactly one goal for plus 0.20u on the bet365 retail take of 1.40.

The Åtvidaberg AH plus 0.25 split at Pick 10 produced the second textbook split outcome of the day. The match ended 3-3, a high scoring draw. The split runs half stake on Draw No Bet Åtvidaberg at the BetfairExchange take of 1.74 plus half stake on Double Chance X1 at the BetfairExchange take of 1.46. On the draw the DNB refunds and the DC X1 wins fully, netting plus 0.22u after commission. The Byåsen DNB at Pick 7 (the late swap in for Criciúma whose DC X1 dropped below the 1.17 ROI floor near kickoff) won 2-1 outright for plus 0.13u on the 1.13 BetMGM retail take.

1. FA Šiauliai II 0-1 FK Babrungas (Lithuania 1-Lyga). AH Babrungas -0.50 (MW Away) @ 1.22 (BetMGM/BetUK FS retail). WON, +0.220u
2. FK TransINVEST II 0-1 FK Tauras (Lithuania 1-Lyga). AH Tauras -0.50 (MW Away) @ 1.32 (BetMGM/BetUK FS retail). WON, +0.320u
3. Ariana FC (AFC Malmö) 1-0 Jönköpings Södra (Sweden Ettan Södra). AH AFC Malmö 0.00 DNB SPICY @ 1.80 (William Hill FS retail). WON, +0.800u
4. Dodoma Jiji 0-0 Mbeya City (Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara). AH Dodoma +0.25 split @ 10bet DNB 3.65 + Skybet DC X1 2.50, half stakes. WON, +0.750u
5. Operário PR 1-0 América MG (Brazil Serie B). AH América +1.25 split @ 1.41 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). HALF WON (push on +1.0, win on +1.5), +0.195u
6. Pamba Jiji 0-1 JKT Tanzania (Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara). AH Pamba +0.25 split @ Betway DNB 1.48 + BetMGM DC X1 1.28, half stakes. LOST, -1.000u
7. Byåsen 2-1 Aalesund 2 (Norway 3-Division Group 2). AH Byåsen 0.00 DNB @ 1.13 (BetMGM FS retail). WON, +0.130u
9. Paysandu 1-3 Santa Cruz (Brazil Serie C). AH Santa Cruz +1.25 @ 1.42 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.399u
10. Åtvidaberg 3-3 Rosengard (Sweden Ettan Södra). AH Åtvidaberg +0.25 split @ BF DNB 1.74 + BF DC X1 1.46, half stakes (5 per cent commission). HALF WON, +0.2185u
Bench. Varberg 2-1 Öster (Sweden Superettan). AH Öster +1.25 split @ 1.40 (bet365 FS retail). HALF WON (push on +1.0, win on +1.5), +0.200u

Day net: +2.27u. Strike: 5W / 4 partial W / 1L (90 per cent positive P&L).