Results for Sun 28 June 2026

A banner Sunday on a twelve pick slate, ten winners and two losses settling for a net of plus 2.59u on 12u staked, return on investment plus 21.6 per cent on the day. The structure of the result is as instructive as the bottom line: every single pick at the AH plus 1.25 line type either won outright or won by draw on at least one filter family, with the two losses both arising from the identical structural failure mode of the away side losing by exactly two goals. Five of the seven AH plus 1.25 picks banked clean, two SPICY long price calls both delivered including one upset, and the operator trim on Tanger from the cell’s plus 0.50 line to the safer plus 1.50 line cost roughly 0.85u of upside on the draw outcome but protected against a downside that never materialised.

The AH plus 1.25 sweep is the headline structural finding of the day. Hassania Agadir at home plus 0.75 against Khemis Zemamra drew 1-1 and banked plus 0.17u on the Betfair Exchange take of 1.18 (the plus 0.75 split bridges to half on plus 0.5 and half on plus 1.0, both legs win on a draw with Hassania getting the cushion). Zhenis at home plus 1.25 against FC Astana drew 2-2 and banked plus 0.28u at 1.29. Maranhão away plus 1.25 at Ituano drew 0-0 and banked plus 0.52u at 1.55 BF, the strongest value ratio of the four plus 1.25 draws thanks to bookmaker overround on the away side of a heavy home favourite line. Confiança away plus 1.25 at Ypiranga drew 1-1 and banked plus 0.28u at 1.29 BF. Kaisar away plus 1.25 at Irtysh Pavlodar won outright 2-1, the only AH plus 1.25 pick of the day to settle on a win rather than a draw, banking plus 0.26u at 1.27 BF. Five of seven plus 1.25 picks on the day, three on draws and two on wins, is an unusually strong concentration on a single line type.

The two losses both arose from the identical structural failure mode of the away side losing by exactly two goals, breaking the AH plus 1.25 cushion in both cases. Altay away plus 1.25 at Tobol lost the match 1-3 (away side conceded by two) for minus 1.00u on the 1.66 BF take. Helsingborg away plus 1.25 at Sandviken lost 4-2 (away side conceded by two) for minus 1.00u on the 1.34 BF take. The Helsingborg loss is the more painful of the two because the cell call promoted the pick from bench to main in the final hour on strength of value ratio and BF liquidity, but the underlying form filter (pick_GS8 plus) failed on the day.

The two SPICY picks both banked, and one was the upset of the day. EB-Streymur at home plus 0.25 against B36 Torshavn drew 2-2 (the EB-Streymur cell call carried the opp_GC8 plus filter, signalling B36 has conceded eight or more across the last five). The plus 0.25 split bridges to half on 0.0 (Draw No Bet) plus half on plus 0.5 (Double Chance home or draw). On the 2-2 draw the DNB leg refunds and the plus 0.5 leg wins fully, netting plus 1.08u after exchange commission. This was the strongest single return of the day and exactly the SPICY pricing the cell call was designed for. Dcheira away plus 1.25 at Wydad Casablanca delivered the upset of the day, winning 3-1 outright against the heavy home favourite. The opp_L3 plus FTS2 filter was signalling Wydad had lost three of last five and failed to score in two, and the away side capitalised banking plus 0.63u on the bet365 retail take of 1.63. Two SPICY picks contributed plus 1.71u to the day, which alone covered both AH plus 1.25 losses and produced positive net before the standard plus 1.25 wins layered on top.

The standard picks all banked cleanly. Stjarnan at home plus 0.00 against KA Akureyri bridges directly to a Draw No Bet on Stjarnan — Stjarnan won outright 3-1 for plus 0.71u on the 1.75 BetfairExchange take, the deepest book on the slate at the longest price. Juventude at home plus 0.50 against Ceará bridges to a Double Chance Home or Draw — Juventude won 2-0 for plus 0.28u on the 1.29 BetfairExchange take.

The Tanger trim deserves a separate paragraph because it’s the operational call worth recording. The cell line for the Tanger bench pick was AH H plus 0.50 SPICY at the BetfairExchange take of 2.23. The operator made the call to trim the take to the safer AH plus 1.50 line at the bet365 retail take of 1.38, on the grounds that a one goal Tanger loss would push on plus 1.50 but lose outright on plus 0.50. Tanger drew the match 1-1 against Raja Casablanca. On the draw the original AH plus 0.50 line at 2.23 would have settled as a full win (home plus 0.5 covers a draw, plus 1.23u net). The AH plus 1.50 line at 1.38 also settled as a full win on the draw (plus 0.38u net). The trim therefore cost approximately 0.85u of upside on this specific draw outcome. The trim was not wrong as a risk management call, it simply protected against a downside that did not materialise.

1. Stjarnan 3-1 KA Akureyri (Iceland Besta deild). AH Stjarnan 0.00 DNB @ 1.75 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.7125u
2. Hassania Agadir 1-1 Khemis Zemamra (Morocco Botola Pro). AH Hassania +0.75 split @ 1.18 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.171u
3. Zhenis 2-2 FC Astana (Kazakhstan Premier League). AH Zhenis +1.25 split @ 1.29 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.2755u
4. Ituano 0-0 Maranhão (Brazil Serie C). AH Maranhão +1.25 split @ 1.55 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.5225u
5. Ypiranga RS 1-1 Confiança (Brazil Serie C). AH Confiança +1.25 split @ 1.29 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.2755u
6. Irtysh Pavlodar 1-2 FK Kaisar (Kazakhstan Premier League). AH Kaisar +1.25 @ 1.27 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.2565u
7. EB-Streymur 2-2 B36 Torshavn (Faroe Islands Premier League). AH EB-Streymur +0.25 SPICY @ 3.28 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). HALF WON (refund on 0.0, win on +0.5), +1.083u
8. Wydad AC 1-3 Olympique Dcheira (Morocco Botola Pro). AH Dcheira +1.25 SPICY UPSET @ 1.63 (bet365 FS retail). WON, +0.630u
9. Juventude 2-0 Ceará (Brazil Serie B). AH Juventude +0.50 (DC X1) @ 1.29 (Betfair Exchange direct, 5 per cent commission). WON, +0.2755u
10. Tobol 3-1 FK Altai (Kazakhstan Premier League). AH Altay +1.25 @ 1.66 (Betfair Exchange direct). LOST, -1.000u
11. Sandviken 4-2 Helsingborgs (Sweden Superettan). AH Helsingborg +1.25 @ 1.34 (Betfair Exchange direct). LOST, -1.000u
Bench. Tanger 1-1 Raja Casablanca (Morocco Botola Pro). AH Tanger +1.50 SPICY (operator trim from cell +0.50) @ 1.38 (bet365 FS retail). WON, +0.380u

Day net: +2.59u. Strike: 10W / 0P / 2L (83 per cent).