Results for Sun 12 July 2026

A second hard day to end the weekend, and we want to be straight with you about it. Both the result, and what we have found underneath it.

First the card, and it is worth being clear about how the losses came, because this was not a day of beatings. Germinal went a goal down after 22 minutes and pushed for an equaliser all night that never came. Guaireña chased a single goal from the first half deep into stoppage time. Lakeland lost to the only goal of the game. Three of our bets beaten by one goal each, the sort of tight calls that go our way on another night. The heavier defeats were real enough, Almagro by three and Perth by two, but the shape of the day was our teams making chances and not taking them. The good news held up too. Ballard won 4-0, Subiaco and Juventus won 1-0, Racing’s draw was enough for their bet, and Fortaleza’s narrow loss still gave us half a win. Four wins and a half against six losses.

Here is where we will not give you half the story. Some of this weekend was just bad luck, losses by a single goal in games we were the better side in, and those even out over time. But we have looked hard underneath it, and there is more going on than luck. This is a real change in the markets, not only a busy World Cup summer. It is showing up most in the smaller summer leagues that make up so much of a July card. The prices have got sharper, the gaps our systems were built to take advantage of have shrunk, and some systems built for the old conditions have stopped working as well as they did. Put simply, some of these losses were luck and some were a warning, and the last few days have been about telling the two apart.

And here is the important bit. We have solved it. We now know which systems have faded and which still hold up, and we are acting on it. So expect some changes over the coming days. We will be dropping or resting the systems that have stopped working, tightening up the selection, and sending a shorter, sharper list of bets while we adjust to how these markets are pricing now. The heart of what wins, the strike rate, is still there. What moved was the prices around it, and we are moving with them. We would rather show you a thin couple of weeks and the fix than a smooth story and no honesty. The changes start now.

Settled bets

1. San Martín Tucumán 3-0 Almagro (Argentina Primera Nacional). AH Almagro +1.25 @ 1.48. LOST, -1.000u
2. Atlético GO 1-0 Fortaleza (Brazil Serie B). AH Fortaleza +1.25 @ 1.21. HALF WON, +0.105u
3. Guaireña 0-1 12 de Junio (Paraguay Intermedia). AH Guaireña +0.5 @ 1.55. LOST, -1.000u
4. Racing 1-1 Peñarol (Uruguay Primera). AH Racing +1.25 @ 1.18. WON, +0.180u
5. Atlético Tubarão 2-3 Metropolitano (Brazil Catarinense 2). AH Tubarão +0.25 @ 1.68. LOST, -1.000u
6. Juventus SC 1-0 Guarani de Palhoça (Brazil Catarinense 2). AH Juventus +0.25 @ 1.65 / 1.36. WON, +0.505u
7. Sorrento 0-1 Subiaco (WA NPL Women). AH Subiaco +0.25 @ 1.61. WON, +0.610u
8. Fremantle City 2-0 Perth RedStar (WA NPL Women). AH Perth +0.25 @ 2.04. LOST, -1.000u
9. Ballard 4-0 Snohomish United (USL League Two). DNB Ballard @ 1.57. WON, +0.570u
10. Germinal de Rawson 0-1 Olimpo (Argentina Torneo Federal A). AH Germinal +0.5 @ 1.53. LOST, -1.000u
11. Lakeland United 0-1 Fort Lauderdale (USL League Two). AH Lakeland +0.5 @ 1.95. LOST, -1.000u

Day net: minus 4.03u. Strike: 4 wins, 1 half, 6 losses.