Results for Wed 29 July 2026

6 picks today.

The best price on the card was one we nearly did not have at all. KV are in the Icelandic third tier, which the odds screens do not carry, so on the face of it there was no market. There was, at eight different counters, and none of them quoted the +0.25 line we wanted except one. Splitting it instead — half on the draw-no-bet at 2.15, half on the double chance at 1.70 — came out at 1.92 against the 1.86 available as a single bet. KV won 6-3, so both halves paid in full. The lesson is a dull one but it keeps earning: a line missing from the screen is not a line missing from the market.

Fylkir was the other one that existed in only one place. Not a single bookmaker priced them at -1.00 — the board ran to -0.5 and then jumped straight past us to -1.5, because they were 1.17 to win the match outright. The exchange had it at 1.36 with about a tenner behind the price. They won 3-1, which on that line is the narrowest possible full win. Another goal for Völsungur and the whole stake comes back instead.

Both losses were the two shortest prices on the card, which is how it usually goes. Pittsburgh at 1.50 lost 1-0 at home to a Tulsa side who had one shot that mattered. Luqueño at 1.43 were beaten 4-1, and three goals is well past anything a +0.75 start protects you from. Neither was close.

Four winners from six and the day closes at barely a fifth of a unit, which is worth sitting with for a moment. The two that lost were priced 1.50 and 1.43, so they cost two full units between them, while the four that won returned 2.20 in total. That is the arithmetic of a short-odds book: you need the strike rate to be high because there is no room for it not to be. Sixty-seven percent was not enough today.

A seventh pick came off the card before kick-off. Cuniburo had drifted in to 1.14, under our 1.20 minimum, and we do not take those however good the signal looks. It is worth noting the venues split almost evenly today: the exchange gave the better price on two picks, the bookmakers on three, and one was a dead heat. Checking both is not a formality.

1. KV 6-3 Reynir (Iceland 3. deild) — Home AH +0.25 KV @ 1.92 — won
2. Thróttur Vogar 3-1 Hvíti riddarinn (Iceland 2. deild) — Home DNB Thróttur Vogar @ 1.57 — won
3. Sp. Luqueño 1-4 Sportivo Trinidense (Paraguay División Profesional) — Home AH +0.75 Luqueño @ 1.43 — lost
4. Fylkir 3-1 Völsungur (Iceland 1. deild) — Home AH -1.0 Fylkir @ 1.36 — won
5. Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0-1 FC Tulsa (USL Championship) — Home AH 0.00 Pittsburgh @ 1.50 — lost
6. Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 River Plate (Argentina Liga Profesional) — Home AH +1.0 Gimnasia @ 1.35 — won

Day close: +0.20u (4 paid of 6: 4 won, 2 lost).

DR