Results for Fri 14 August 2026

5 picks. Two won, two lost, one returned the stake. Down 0.42 units.

Västerås carried the day and it was the biggest price on the slip. A plus 0.50 on the away side is a Double Chance and nothing else, so it needed a draw or a win, and it got a 3-0 win at Elfsborg. 2.16 on the exchange against a best of 2.00 in twenty shops — sixteen pips of difference on a price that long is real money, and it was the widest exchange edge of that week.

Hammarby I warned you about and it lost. I wrote that the price had been shortening all day and was still moving, and that if it had gone a long way by the time you reached it then it was not the bet I was advising. Eskilstuna won 1-0. The market had been moving against our side before kick-off and it kept going in the same direction after it. That is worth recording rather than glossing: when I tell you a price is running away, the honest reading is that somebody knows something, and often enough they do.

Brisbane lost 2-1 and played a good deal better than that. The bet was beaten and there is nothing to appeal, but the underlying performance was the better of the two. That does not go in the ledger.

What does stand from that fixture is the route work. The quarter was posted at 1.85 and building it from two halves paid 2.425 — a thirty-one per cent difference on the same bet, the widest split I have printed. The reason is structural: the shops that will sell you a quarter line in one piece are the tightest on the board, and the ones pricing it long will only sell it in two. That holds whether the bet wins or not.

Cerrito drew 1-1 and the stake came back. That one was a queue-at-your-price job on a market that had barely opened, with instructions to cancel and take 1.85 at the shops if it had not filled four hours out. Either route settles the same on a draw.

1. Elfsborg 0-3 Västerås SK (Sweden Allsvenskan) — Away AH +0.50 Västerås @ 2.16 — won
2. AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 Hammarby TFF (Sweden Ettan Norra) — Away AH +0.25 Hammarby @ 1.24 — lost
3. Brisbane Roar U23 1-2 Gold Coast Knights (Australia NPL Queensland) — Home AH +0.25 Brisbane, bridged @ 2.425 — lost
4. Ahlafors IF 3-1 Grebbestad (Sweden Div 2 Norra Götaland) — Home AH +0.25 Ahlafors, bridged @ 1.415 — won
5. Cerrito 1-1 Oriental (Uruguay Segunda División) — Home AH 0.00 Cerrito @ 1.90 — push

Day close: -0.42u (2 won, 1 pushed, 2 lost from 5).