Results for Sat 1 August 2026

7 picks today. A deliberately short card — more on that at the bottom.

Smedby did most of the work. It was the only price on the card above 2.00, and it was only there because of the route: no bookmaker was pricing the Asian line properly, but a –0.5 handicap and a straight match-winner bet are the same thing, and the match-winner market paid 2.00 across three firms that price independently of each other. Smedby won 2-0 and returned the full unit. That single bet is over half the day.

Kvik Halden won 5-4, which is a ridiculous scoreline for a bet that only needed them to avoid defeat. We had the half-goal start and never needed it.

FC Caspiy is worth explaining properly, because it is the case people find confusing. A +1.25 handicap is two half-stake bets: half at +1.0 and half at +1.5. Caspiy lost by exactly one goal. The +1.0 half came back as a refund, the +1.5 half won. So a defeat still paid. That is the whole point of the quarter line — it buys you a soft landing on the exact margin that would otherwise cost you everything. It was also the only bet on the card no bookmaker would take: not one firm quoted a quarter line on the match, and it existed solely on the exchange.

Ferro Carril Oeste is the one that stings, and not because of the result. It was the best-priced bet on the card — the only one where what we could actually get beat what the model said it was worth — and it came off a cell that has won 92% of its bets. Godoy Cruz won 3-1 and both halves of the split went. Nothing was misread; the price was right and the football did not cooperate. Those days are the cost of doing this honestly.

2 de Mayo drew 1-1 and paid in full, and Atlantis drew 2-2 and did the same — both were carrying a start, so a draw was never in danger. Vancouver won 3-1 on a route no bookmaker offered at all: the Asian board on that match did not go anywhere near a half-goal start, so the bet only existed as a double chance.

1. Smedby 2-0 Örebro Syrianska (Sweden Div 2 Södra Svealand) — Home AH -0.5 Smedby @ 2.00 — won
2. Sandviken 4-5 Kvik Halden (Norway 2. divisjon Gr. 1) — Away AH +0.5 Kvik Halden @ 1.44 — won
3. Irtysh 3-2 FC Caspiy (Kazakhstan Premier League) — Away AH +1.25 Caspiy @ 1.42 — half won
4. PuiU Helsinki 2-2 Atlantis (Finland Kakkonen) — Away AH +0.5 Atlantis @ 1.40 — won
5. Ferro Carril Oeste 1-3 Godoy Cruz (Argentina Primera Nacional) — Home AH +0.25 Ferro @ 1.315 — lost
6. Sportivo Ameliano 1-1 2 de Mayo (Paraguay División Profesional) — Away AH +1.25 2 de Mayo @ 1.29 — won
7. Vancouver FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League) — Home AH +0.5 Vancouver @ 1.31 — won

Day close: +1.65u (5 won, 1 half won, 1 lost from 7).

On the short card. The scan produced fifteen candidates and we published seven. The eight that came off were not bad bets — several looked strong — but we could not verify their historical records to the standard we hold ourselves to, and an unverified number is not a reason to stake. Two were dropped for other reasons: one was a play-off match, where a team's league form tells you very little, and one had no independent bookmaker behind its price at all.

We would rather publish seven bets we can stand behind than fifteen we cannot. Some days that will cost us. Today it did not.

DR