August 2026: level, and the new seasons arrive

August finished level, 0.53 units up from 145 picks. Not much movement at the end, but quite a lot happened along the way.

The first half of the month was the end of the summer leagues. The second half brought the new seasons in Spain, Portugal, Scotland, Turkey, Greece and the rest, and the card changed with them. The average price went up from 1.50 in July to 1.72, and more of the picks moved onto the minus one line.

The bigger prices carried the month. Bets at 2.00 or more made 8.43 units from 36 picks. Everything shorter lost. Keflavík on the minus one at 3.09 was the biggest winner and Sunday the 23rd, ten picks with eight outright winners, was the best day at plus 5.16.

The end of the month was harder. The last week cost about ten units, and a lot of it came the same way. Favourites on the minus one line kept winning by exactly one goal, which gives the stake back, or drawing, which loses it. Early in a new season the gaps between teams are smaller than the tables suggest, and the bookmakers know it.

The running total touched a new high of 454.4 units on the 26th, then gave back about ten units in the last few days and finished the month at 443.7. I am watching the minus one lines closely.

David